Donald Trump has warned Russia that it is “playing with fire” by persisting with its military offensive against Ukraine. This is all very well, but his threat will count for nothing unless it leads to the White House adopting a more robust attitude in its dealings with the Kremlin.
Among the worst features of Trump’s involvement in the Ukraine conflict has been his inability to maintain a consistent line towards Vladimir Putin. One minute he is praising the Russian autocrat as being a “smart” guy with whom he can do business. The next he is berating Putin for being “absolutely crazy” for maintaining Russia’s missile and drone attacks on civilian targets in Ukraine.
The constant fluctuations in Trump’s approach to Russian aggression are all part of his unconventional effort to bring hostilities in Ukraine to an end.
The American president’s boast that he would end the fighting within 24 hours of taking office was patently absurd. But the official position of the Trump administration remains that it is committed to ending the conflict, even if this requires Ukraine to make a number of unpalatable territorial concessions.
Despite formulating an outline peace deal, which was widely condemned for rewarding Russian aggression, the penny finally seems to have dropped for Trump and his senior national security team that Putin has no genuine interest in seeking a peaceful resolution to the conflict.
All the indications suggest that Putin’s desultory engagement in Trump’s peace efforts are little more than a blatant attempt to play for time to enable his forces to achieve tangible gains on the battlefield.
Arguably Putin’s most telling comment on the conflict since Trump took office was made in a documentary broadcast on Russian state television earlier this month to mark his 25 years as president. He declared that Russia had the “strength and means” to push the Ukraine conflict to its “logical conclusion”.
That certainly appears to be the approach Russian forces have adopted in recent months on the battlefield. All the indications are that Moscow, far from giving serious consideration to agreeing a ceasefire, has intensified its military effort.
Last weekend saw the Russians launch one of their largest combined aerial assault on Ukraine since its invasion in February 2022. Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky has warned that Moscow is “preparing new offensive operations”.
The Russians appear to be making territorial gains in the north-eastern region of Sumy, where they are attempting to create “buffer zones” along the border to prevent Ukraine from launching any fresh Kursk-style operations to capture Russian soil.
Trump has been forced to concede that, despite his administration’s attempts to negotiate a ceasefire, the Russians have shown no real interest in agreeing a deal. Despite Trump’s public insistence that his most recent two-hour phone call with Putin went “very well”, and that “some progress has been made” in ending hostilities, the read-out provided by US officials to their European counterparts told a different story. Putin is not interested in ending the conflict, they reported, because he believes he is winning.
The dawning realisation for Trump that Putin is simply “tapping me along” has led him to become increasingly intemperate in his attitude towards the Russian leader, denouncing him as being “absolutely crazy”. The US president has warned that the only reason that the Kremlin had avoided “really bad things” from happening was because of his personal intervention.
Even for a pathological narcissist like Trump, it must now be undeniably evident that his contribution to the Ukraine crisis has made matters a great deal worse, not better.
Russia’s recent advances on the battlefield are a direct consequence of Trump’s vacillation. They have served to promote the belief in Moscow that the West lacks the will to defend Ukraine’s interests.
Yet, were Trump to adopt a more confrontational attitude towards Putin, the situation could quickly be reversed. The US president has previously threatened the imposition of secondary sanctions aimed at ending Moscow’s black market oil activities, which have helped to fund his war effort.
With the Russian economy suffering as a result of falling oil revenues, Trump could inflict serious damage on Russia’s war effort if he were to follow through on his threat to extend the West’s sanctions regime against Moscow. The White House is said to be giving serious consideration to the imposition of punitive secondary sanctions that would be applied to countries, such as India and China, which continue to buy Russian oil, gas and raw materials.
And it is still not too late to revive Ukraine’s military fortunes if Washington agreed to provide Ukraine with the equipment it badly needs. With long-range missile and air defences, Kyiv could take the fight to Moscow at the same time as sending a strong and unequivocal message to Putin that the US will not tolerate the use of any nuclear weapons.
Putin may have outwitted Trump in his attempts to end the war, but the US president still has the means to ensure that the Russian despot does not succeed in winning the conflict.
Donald Trump has warned Russia that it is “playing with fire” by persisting with its military offensive against Ukraine. This is all very well, but his threat will count for nothing unless it leads to the White House adopting a more robust attitude in its dealings with the Kremlin.
Among the worst features of Trump’s involvement in the Ukraine conflict has been his inability to maintain a consistent line towards Vladimir Putin. One minute he is praising the Russian autocrat as being a “smart” guy with whom he can do business. The next he is berating Putin for being “absolutely crazy” for maintaining Russia’s missile and drone attacks on civilian targets in Ukraine.
The constant fluctuations in Trump’s approach to Russian aggression are all part of his unconventional effort to bring hostilities in Ukraine to an end.
The American president’s boast that he would end the fighting within 24 hours of taking office was patently absurd. But the official position of the Trump administration remains that it is committed to ending the conflict, even if this requires Ukraine to make a number of unpalatable territorial concessions.
Despite formulating an outline peace deal, which was widely condemned for rewarding Russian aggression, the penny finally seems to have dropped for Trump and his senior national security team that Putin has no genuine interest in seeking a peaceful resolution to the conflict.
All the indications suggest that Putin’s desultory engagement in Trump’s peace efforts are little more than a blatant attempt to play for time to enable his forces to achieve tangible gains on the battlefield.
Arguably Putin’s most telling comment on the conflict since Trump took office was made in a documentary broadcast on Russian state television earlier this month to mark his 25 years as president. He declared that Russia had the “strength and means” to push the Ukraine conflict to its “logical conclusion”.
That certainly appears to be the approach Russian forces have adopted in recent months on the battlefield. All the indications are that Moscow, far from giving serious consideration to agreeing a ceasefire, has intensified its military effort.
Last weekend saw the Russians launch one of their largest combined aerial assault on Ukraine since its invasion in February 2022. Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky has warned that Moscow is “preparing new offensive operations”.
The Russians appear to be making territorial gains in the north-eastern region of Sumy, where they are attempting to create “buffer zones” along the border to prevent Ukraine from launching any fresh Kursk-style operations to capture Russian soil.
Trump has been forced to concede that, despite his administration’s attempts to negotiate a ceasefire, the Russians have shown no real interest in agreeing a deal. Despite Trump’s public insistence that his most recent two-hour phone call with Putin went “very well”, and that “some progress has been made” in ending hostilities, the read-out provided by US officials to their European counterparts told a different story. Putin is not interested in ending the conflict, they reported, because he believes he is winning.
The dawning realisation for Trump that Putin is simply “tapping me along” has led him to become increasingly intemperate in his attitude towards the Russian leader, denouncing him as being “absolutely crazy”. The US president has warned that the only reason that the Kremlin had avoided “really bad things” from happening was because of his personal intervention.
Even for a pathological narcissist like Trump, it must now be undeniably evident that his contribution to the Ukraine crisis has made matters a great deal worse, not better.
Russia’s recent advances on the battlefield are a direct consequence of Trump’s vacillation. They have served to promote the belief in Moscow that the West lacks the will to defend Ukraine’s interests.
Yet, were Trump to adopt a more confrontational attitude towards Putin, the situation could quickly be reversed. The US president has previously threatened the imposition of secondary sanctions aimed at ending Moscow’s black market oil activities, which have helped to fund his war effort.
With the Russian economy suffering as a result of falling oil revenues, Trump could inflict serious damage on Russia’s war effort if he were to follow through on his threat to extend the West’s sanctions regime against Moscow. The White House is said to be giving serious consideration to the imposition of punitive secondary sanctions that would be applied to countries, such as India and China, which continue to buy Russian oil, gas and raw materials.
And it is still not too late to revive Ukraine’s military fortunes if Washington agreed to provide Ukraine with the equipment it badly needs. With long-range missile and air defences, Kyiv could take the fight to Moscow at the same time as sending a strong and unequivocal message to Putin that the US will not tolerate the use of any nuclear weapons.
Putin may have outwitted Trump in his attempts to end the war, but the US president still has the means to ensure that the Russian despot does not succeed in winning the conflict.