The American philosopher and Presidential Medal of Freedom winner Eric Hoffer once said, “the only way to predict the future is to have the power to shape it.” As President Trump takes to the White House for the second time this feels pertinent.
And so it is, when trying to foresee what the Trump presidency will mean for the world’s maritime police force and primary international upholder of Freedom of Navigation, the US Navy. What will he want to change, what will he have time to change and perhaps most importantly, who will he appoint to do so?
First, some of the knowns. The US Navy remains the most powerful in the world by almost any meaningful metric. Yes, the Chinese navy is bigger just by number of hulls, but this is misleading. In tonnage or missile tubes or any other useful number the USN is well ahead.
But it won’t be forever. The US Navy is shrinking: US shipyards cannot build ships and submarines fast enough to replace the old ones going out of service. Meanwhile the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) is backed by far and away the world’s biggest shipbuilding sector. It is building ships, submarines and aircraft at an eye-watering rate whilst simultaneously getting better at using them. At some point, the graphs will cross over, possibly in the not too distant future.
The question for me over the next four years is will Trump’s interest in the US Navy and shipbuilding (which has been declared this time, it was less evident last time) have enough of an effect to offset the probable fragmentation in the global network of Western alliances.
The American philosopher and Presidential Medal of Freedom winner Eric Hoffer once said, “the only way to predict the future is to have the power to shape it.” As President Trump takes to the White House for the second time this feels pertinent.
And so it is, when trying to foresee what the Trump presidency will mean for the world’s maritime police force and primary international upholder of Freedom of Navigation, the US Navy. What will he want to change, what will he have time to change and perhaps most importantly, who will he appoint to do so?
First, some of the knowns. The US Navy remains the most powerful in the world by almost any meaningful metric. Yes, the Chinese navy is bigger just by number of hulls, but this is misleading. In tonnage or missile tubes or any other useful number the USN is well ahead.
But it won’t be forever. The US Navy is shrinking: US shipyards cannot build ships and submarines fast enough to replace the old ones going out of service. Meanwhile the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) is backed by far and away the world’s biggest shipbuilding sector. It is building ships, submarines and aircraft at an eye-watering rate whilst simultaneously getting better at using them. At some point, the graphs will cross over, possibly in the not too distant future.
The question for me over the next four years is will Trump’s interest in the US Navy and shipbuilding (which has been declared this time, it was less evident last time) have enough of an effect to offset the probable fragmentation in the global network of Western alliances.