Syria’s emperor has no clothes. The extraordinary military advances made by Syrian rebel groups over the past week and a half have taken both the world and Syrian president Bashar al-Assad by surprise. Until late November, Assad – and many outside observers – had considered the Syrian conflict to be indefinitely frozen.
While Assad could not declare outright victory – with the north west and the north east of the country still outside his control – he hoped that presiding over a rump state would be enough for the international community to eventually give up on the UN-led peace process calling for political transition in Syria and accept him as the de facto winner in the Syrian conflict. In other words, Assad was relying on pragmatism prevailing.
What is happening now is the kind of pragmatism that Assad never imagined. Pragmatism shape-shifted to become Assad’s worst nightmare. What Assad banked on as pillars propping up his regime are falling one by one, leaving him exposed and disposable.
Israel had tolerated the Assad regime for decades because the regime’s behaviour proved to be low-risk. But the threats to Israeli security that the horrific October 7 assaults unleashed meant that Israel was no longer going to put up with Iran-backed armed groups roaming freely at its borders and attacking it, including militias such as Hezbollah.
Syria’s emperor has no clothes. The extraordinary military advances made by Syrian rebel groups over the past week and a half have taken both the world and Syrian president Bashar al-Assad by surprise. Until late November, Assad – and many outside observers – had considered the Syrian conflict to be indefinitely frozen.
While Assad could not declare outright victory – with the north west and the north east of the country still outside his control – he hoped that presiding over a rump state would be enough for the international community to eventually give up on the UN-led peace process calling for political transition in Syria and accept him as the de facto winner in the Syrian conflict. In other words, Assad was relying on pragmatism prevailing.
What is happening now is the kind of pragmatism that Assad never imagined. Pragmatism shape-shifted to become Assad’s worst nightmare. What Assad banked on as pillars propping up his regime are falling one by one, leaving him exposed and disposable.
Israel had tolerated the Assad regime for decades because the regime’s behaviour proved to be low-risk. But the threats to Israeli security that the horrific October 7 assaults unleashed meant that Israel was no longer going to put up with Iran-backed armed groups roaming freely at its borders and attacking it, including militias such as Hezbollah.