On Friday I gave a speech to military and political leaders of North Macedonia, a new Nato country, as they pondered the specialist capabilities which they may be able to provide to a Nato peacekeeping force for Ukraine. My role as a military expert and Nato soldier for over 37 years, was to try and describe the strategic environment which Nato now faces.
We’ve had a few weeks of the Trump administration flexing its MAGA muscles around the world –or rather not flexing them in Europe. Instead Trump’s pronouncements have created an air of ambiguity and confusion amongst Nato allies like North Macedonia, Germany and the UK. Before the game even seriously began, the new President appeared to hand all the cards to Putin.
We’re witnessing a new version of the old tale of the emperor’s new clothes, perhaps with Elon Musk as the weaver. Trump is acting like an obstinate child. Nobody he listens to is prepared to tell him the real situation, with real people potentially dying as a result of the decisions he is making for economic rather than military and humanitarian reasons. Trump appears to know the cost of everything but the value of nothing. The new emperor seems to be suggesting that the US is now not an ally Europe can rely on and certainly not in an Article 5 sense. European Nato countries must plan support to Ukraine and the security of Europe on this basis henceforth – and fair enough, why should the US taxpayer fund our defence?
Everyone, apart from Putin and perhaps some of Trump’s new team, would welcome any genuinely viable peace deal for Ukraine, which seems a possibility. Let us not forget that Ukraine is not the aggressor but has been terribly wronged by this “special military operation”. Equally, those who understand these things know that peace enforcement is a vital part of achieving such a viable peace. I for one am glad that the Prime Minister is trying to lead on this, by offering up our military to lead the peace force.
Like many soldiers, I’ve done both war fighting and peace keeping/enforcement, and I’d judge that the British squaddie is the best in the business. But our soldiers have been so neglected by this and the last government, that the Kipling line “Tommy this and Tommy that” has a painful resonance. Trump is right in one thing, that Europe and the UK have paid lip service to our own defence for too long.
The British military can certainly set up the necessary force, and would appreciate the support of Nato allies like North Macedonia and perhaps also now Germany. Nevertheless the numbers and capabilities that would be required mean that our troops would not be able to do anything else. Any deployment would require huge investment in resources and a call up of reservists to make the numbers work. Our Reserve soldiers are a much-under-utilised force (I am one of them). They will probably get the PM out of his manpower pickle in the short term, but a long term solution will require more money.
This will not happen overnight and will likely take 2-3 months to be fully operational. There will be a huge logistic tail, and the planners must focus on the longer term, and Starmer must now ‘get’ that you cannot have the Military on the cheap. We may not have a bumptious union to shout for us, but we’ve never let the Nation down and should be treated as such.
There is informed talk that a force of around 40,000 will be required to provide a force which can deter Russian aggression, and Putin needs to know he will get a thumping if he tries anything. That means artillery, tanks, and bags of air power, which will need to be cued on to their targets by a vast array of intelligence assets from satellites to surveillance drones and signals intelligence. Many of the air assets will still have to be provided by Uncle Sam, which appears possible if the UK and key European allies can come up with the heavyweight ‘grunt’ on the ground.
The world is a different place today, with some people seeing transactions and money as more important than deeds and moral fibre. The UK is not the place it was and now we must follow when we once led – but at least with the potential Ukraine operation we do still have a chance to make a significant difference.
Let us hope the Prime Minister’s fine worlds are backed up with the resources and resolve to carry it through and that this week he and Macron tell the “Emperor” when they visit him in Washington some of the truths he needs to hear. If we get this wrong Europe could well be plunged into another dreadful war, without any certainty that we could rely on our once close cousins from across the pond to help this time.
Perhaps, as Merz suggests, this is the end of Nato and the beginning of EATO?
On Friday I gave a speech to military and political leaders of North Macedonia, a new Nato country, as they pondered the specialist capabilities which they may be able to provide to a Nato peacekeeping force for Ukraine. My role as a military expert and Nato soldier for over 37 years, was to try and describe the strategic environment which Nato now faces.
We’ve had a few weeks of the Trump administration flexing its MAGA muscles around the world –or rather not flexing them in Europe. Instead Trump’s pronouncements have created an air of ambiguity and confusion amongst Nato allies like North Macedonia, Germany and the UK. Before the game even seriously began, the new President appeared to hand all the cards to Putin.
We’re witnessing a new version of the old tale of the emperor’s new clothes, perhaps with Elon Musk as the weaver. Trump is acting like an obstinate child. Nobody he listens to is prepared to tell him the real situation, with real people potentially dying as a result of the decisions he is making for economic rather than military and humanitarian reasons. Trump appears to know the cost of everything but the value of nothing. The new emperor seems to be suggesting that the US is now not an ally Europe can rely on and certainly not in an Article 5 sense. European Nato countries must plan support to Ukraine and the security of Europe on this basis henceforth – and fair enough, why should the US taxpayer fund our defence?
Everyone, apart from Putin and perhaps some of Trump’s new team, would welcome any genuinely viable peace deal for Ukraine, which seems a possibility. Let us not forget that Ukraine is not the aggressor but has been terribly wronged by this “special military operation”. Equally, those who understand these things know that peace enforcement is a vital part of achieving such a viable peace. I for one am glad that the Prime Minister is trying to lead on this, by offering up our military to lead the peace force.
Like many soldiers, I’ve done both war fighting and peace keeping/enforcement, and I’d judge that the British squaddie is the best in the business. But our soldiers have been so neglected by this and the last government, that the Kipling line “Tommy this and Tommy that” has a painful resonance. Trump is right in one thing, that Europe and the UK have paid lip service to our own defence for too long.
The British military can certainly set up the necessary force, and would appreciate the support of Nato allies like North Macedonia and perhaps also now Germany. Nevertheless the numbers and capabilities that would be required mean that our troops would not be able to do anything else. Any deployment would require huge investment in resources and a call up of reservists to make the numbers work. Our Reserve soldiers are a much-under-utilised force (I am one of them). They will probably get the PM out of his manpower pickle in the short term, but a long term solution will require more money.
This will not happen overnight and will likely take 2-3 months to be fully operational. There will be a huge logistic tail, and the planners must focus on the longer term, and Starmer must now ‘get’ that you cannot have the Military on the cheap. We may not have a bumptious union to shout for us, but we’ve never let the Nation down and should be treated as such.
There is informed talk that a force of around 40,000 will be required to provide a force which can deter Russian aggression, and Putin needs to know he will get a thumping if he tries anything. That means artillery, tanks, and bags of air power, which will need to be cued on to their targets by a vast array of intelligence assets from satellites to surveillance drones and signals intelligence. Many of the air assets will still have to be provided by Uncle Sam, which appears possible if the UK and key European allies can come up with the heavyweight ‘grunt’ on the ground.
The world is a different place today, with some people seeing transactions and money as more important than deeds and moral fibre. The UK is not the place it was and now we must follow when we once led – but at least with the potential Ukraine operation we do still have a chance to make a significant difference.
Let us hope the Prime Minister’s fine worlds are backed up with the resources and resolve to carry it through and that this week he and Macron tell the “Emperor” when they visit him in Washington some of the truths he needs to hear. If we get this wrong Europe could well be plunged into another dreadful war, without any certainty that we could rely on our once close cousins from across the pond to help this time.
Perhaps, as Merz suggests, this is the end of Nato and the beginning of EATO?