This week, the Telegraph will be publishing a series of essays from experts on the demographic crisis facing much of the world, with falling birth rates and ageing populations seen across many regions. A list of published articles can be found below this one
On the southern fringe of the Sahara, a vast expanse of parched and unforgiving land is almost impossible to cultivate and ravaged by Islamist insurgencies.
Yet the countries of this inhospitable region have some of the highest rates of population growth in the world.
Niger ranks third in the global league for pace of annual population growth – about 3.7 per cent – meaning that the nation’s 26 million people will double in number within 20 years.
Neighbouring Chad comes ninth in the world, while Mali, on the other side of Niger, ranks tenth. Today, the combined population of all three states is about 70 million, a total that is forecast to exceed 140 million by 2050.
The demography of the states of the Sahel – as the southern edge of the Sahara is known – leads the way for Africa as a whole. Whereas the overall population of Europe is falling and that of North and South America – and even Asia – is now stabilising, Africa has the fastest rate of growth in the world.
As recently as 1960, the population of the entire continent was only 283 million – not much more than the 230 million who today live in Nigeria alone.
Since then, Africa’s population has multiplied fivefold to reach 1.5 billion. The United Nations Economic Commission for Africa predicts that the continent will add another 950 million people by 2050, bringing its total population to 2.5 billion.
In the next quarter century, about half of the world’s population growth will be concentrated in just eight countries, of which five are in Africa: Ethiopia, Nigeria, Tanzania, Egypt and the Democratic Republic of Congo.
Today, fewer than one in five of the world’s people are Africans; by 2050 Africa will comprise about a quarter of humanity.
Why is this happening and what are the possible consequences?
The simple explanation for Africa’s sustained population growth is a dramatic fall in infant mortality across the continent.
By expanding primary health care and conducting mass vaccination campaigns, African governments have saved millions of young lives, amounting to one of the greatest unsung achievements in modern history.
For every 1,000 children born in Africa in 1960, no less than 145 did not live as long as their first birthday. By last year, that harrowing total had been cut by three quarters to 38.
Behind those dry statistics lies the wondrous fact that millions of children have been spared agonising deaths.
At the other end of the scale, Africans are also living longer. In 1960 the average African could expect to live for only 43 years; today that figure has reached 66 and the UN forecasts that life expectancy will climb to 70 by 2050.
Other continents, particularly Asia, have also achieved huge progress in cutting infant mortality and extending life expectancy.
The reason why Africa’s population is still growing faster is that the continent’s fertility rate remains relatively high. Today the average African woman gives birth to 3.8 children, compared with 2.2 for the average Asian woman.
That broad figure conceals wide variations between countries. The reason why the Sahelian states in West Africa have the fastest rate of population growth on the continent is that their fertility rates are far higher than elsewhere.
The average woman in Chad or Niger has more than six children while the figure for Mali is 5.9, all significantly above the African average.
As for the possible repercussions of Africa’s growing population, the sustained increase in the number of people of working age will represent an immense economic opportunity.
Today almost 900 million Africans are aged between 20 and 64, a total that is set to rise to 1.6 billion by 2050, meaning that a quarter of the world’s total productive population will be found in Africa.
That dramatic change could unlock what economists call a “demographic dividend”, spurring economic growth in African nations. But that outcome is far from inevitable.
“As promising as it sounds,” says the UN Economic Commission for Africa, “a demographic dividend is by no means guaranteed. How well countries capitalise on the demographic window has a lot to do with appropriate policies and the strength of institutions.”
Even the biggest and most sophisticated economies in Africa are failing to generate enough jobs for their rising populations. In South Africa, for example, youth unemployment hovers around 60 per cent. If that is the level today, what will it become over the next 25 years as South Africa gains another 15 million people?
Meanwhile, some of Africa’s biggest countries are ravaged by conflict. Two warlords, General Abdul Fattah al-Burhan and General Mohammed Hamdan Dagalo, are fighting for control of Sudan, tearing the nation to shreds in the process.
To the east of Sudan, a bitter conflict is still taking place in the Amhara region of Ethiopia. To the south, the civil war in South Sudan, never fully resolved, is re-igniting. To the west, Islamist insurgencies are being waged in Chad, Niger, Mali and northern Nigeria.
Elsewhere, Rwanda has invaded eastern Congo, escalating a conflict that has driven millions from their homes.
Today, more wars are being fought more destructively in Africa than at any time since the 1990s. The countries gripped by these conflicts are unlikely to be able to attract the investment they need to capitalise on the “demographic dividend” and create jobs for rising populations.
If African governments fail to generate growth and jobs, the pressure for outward migration by their working age populations will become even greater. Despite all the risks – and the efforts to stop them – about 84,000 people still crossed the Mediterranean from North Africa to reach Europe illegally in 2024.
As civil wars rage and populations increase – without a corresponding rise in the availability of jobs – the incentives for Africans to migrate are likely to become yet more powerful in the decades ahead. Africa’s booming population is set to change the world.
David Blair is The Telegraph’s chief foreign affairs commentator
Other articles in our series on demography:
Balázs Orbán: This is how Hungary climbed the birth-rate rankings
Paul Morland: Immigration, the collapsing NHS, economic catastrophe: all caused by the same thing
This week, the Telegraph will be publishing a series of essays from experts on the demographic crisis facing much of the world, with falling birth rates and ageing populations seen across many regions. A list of published articles can be found below this one
On the southern fringe of the Sahara, a vast expanse of parched and unforgiving land is almost impossible to cultivate and ravaged by Islamist insurgencies.
Yet the countries of this inhospitable region have some of the highest rates of population growth in the world.
Niger ranks third in the global league for pace of annual population growth – about 3.7 per cent – meaning that the nation’s 26 million people will double in number within 20 years.
Neighbouring Chad comes ninth in the world, while Mali, on the other side of Niger, ranks tenth. Today, the combined population of all three states is about 70 million, a total that is forecast to exceed 140 million by 2050.
The demography of the states of the Sahel – as the southern edge of the Sahara is known – leads the way for Africa as a whole. Whereas the overall population of Europe is falling and that of North and South America – and even Asia – is now stabilising, Africa has the fastest rate of growth in the world.
As recently as 1960, the population of the entire continent was only 283 million – not much more than the 230 million who today live in Nigeria alone.
Since then, Africa’s population has multiplied fivefold to reach 1.5 billion. The United Nations Economic Commission for Africa predicts that the continent will add another 950 million people by 2050, bringing its total population to 2.5 billion.
In the next quarter century, about half of the world’s population growth will be concentrated in just eight countries, of which five are in Africa: Ethiopia, Nigeria, Tanzania, Egypt and the Democratic Republic of Congo.
Today, fewer than one in five of the world’s people are Africans; by 2050 Africa will comprise about a quarter of humanity.
Why is this happening and what are the possible consequences?
The simple explanation for Africa’s sustained population growth is a dramatic fall in infant mortality across the continent.
By expanding primary health care and conducting mass vaccination campaigns, African governments have saved millions of young lives, amounting to one of the greatest unsung achievements in modern history.
For every 1,000 children born in Africa in 1960, no less than 145 did not live as long as their first birthday. By last year, that harrowing total had been cut by three quarters to 38.
Behind those dry statistics lies the wondrous fact that millions of children have been spared agonising deaths.
At the other end of the scale, Africans are also living longer. In 1960 the average African could expect to live for only 43 years; today that figure has reached 66 and the UN forecasts that life expectancy will climb to 70 by 2050.
Other continents, particularly Asia, have also achieved huge progress in cutting infant mortality and extending life expectancy.
The reason why Africa’s population is still growing faster is that the continent’s fertility rate remains relatively high. Today the average African woman gives birth to 3.8 children, compared with 2.2 for the average Asian woman.
That broad figure conceals wide variations between countries. The reason why the Sahelian states in West Africa have the fastest rate of population growth on the continent is that their fertility rates are far higher than elsewhere.
The average woman in Chad or Niger has more than six children while the figure for Mali is 5.9, all significantly above the African average.
As for the possible repercussions of Africa’s growing population, the sustained increase in the number of people of working age will represent an immense economic opportunity.
Today almost 900 million Africans are aged between 20 and 64, a total that is set to rise to 1.6 billion by 2050, meaning that a quarter of the world’s total productive population will be found in Africa.
That dramatic change could unlock what economists call a “demographic dividend”, spurring economic growth in African nations. But that outcome is far from inevitable.
“As promising as it sounds,” says the UN Economic Commission for Africa, “a demographic dividend is by no means guaranteed. How well countries capitalise on the demographic window has a lot to do with appropriate policies and the strength of institutions.”
Even the biggest and most sophisticated economies in Africa are failing to generate enough jobs for their rising populations. In South Africa, for example, youth unemployment hovers around 60 per cent. If that is the level today, what will it become over the next 25 years as South Africa gains another 15 million people?
Meanwhile, some of Africa’s biggest countries are ravaged by conflict. Two warlords, General Abdul Fattah al-Burhan and General Mohammed Hamdan Dagalo, are fighting for control of Sudan, tearing the nation to shreds in the process.
To the east of Sudan, a bitter conflict is still taking place in the Amhara region of Ethiopia. To the south, the civil war in South Sudan, never fully resolved, is re-igniting. To the west, Islamist insurgencies are being waged in Chad, Niger, Mali and northern Nigeria.
Elsewhere, Rwanda has invaded eastern Congo, escalating a conflict that has driven millions from their homes.
Today, more wars are being fought more destructively in Africa than at any time since the 1990s. The countries gripped by these conflicts are unlikely to be able to attract the investment they need to capitalise on the “demographic dividend” and create jobs for rising populations.
If African governments fail to generate growth and jobs, the pressure for outward migration by their working age populations will become even greater. Despite all the risks – and the efforts to stop them – about 84,000 people still crossed the Mediterranean from North Africa to reach Europe illegally in 2024.
As civil wars rage and populations increase – without a corresponding rise in the availability of jobs – the incentives for Africans to migrate are likely to become yet more powerful in the decades ahead. Africa’s booming population is set to change the world.
David Blair is The Telegraph’s chief foreign affairs commentator
Other articles in our series on demography:
Balázs Orbán: This is how Hungary climbed the birth-rate rankings
Paul Morland: Immigration, the collapsing NHS, economic catastrophe: all caused by the same thing