President Trump has finally admitted to European leaders this week that Putin has no interest in peace – not least because he thinks he’s winning. The great dealmaker appears to have got nowhere in his marathon chat with the Russian president and it is easy to get the feeling that he’s giving up. Certainly, his close team are giving off a very strong vibe that they would be happiest to distance themselves from what appears to be an intractable challenge.
The fact is that Trump and is team have bombastically and naively stumbled around in their efforts to end the fighting in Ukraine, arrogantly thinking they knew better than anyone else who had been involved. When dealing with blood and guts, rather than real estate, they have been so totally out manoeuvred by the poker-faced tyrant in the Kremlin that is easy to conclude that Trump might be making things worse for the Ukrainians and Europe rather than better. As we all pause and hang on Trump’s every word, Putin cracks on with his stated plan to re-establish the Soviet Union’s westward boundaries.
Putin has not changed his position one inch since the start of the war. The Russian demands for a ceasefire – that Ukrainian withdrawals from all four oblasts that Russian partly controls and disengages from the West – are impossible for President Zelensky countenance. Putin knows this and he also knows that for his own longevity in the Kremlin and probably his personal survival he must achieve at least his primary objective of subjugating Ukraine.
But Putin could not fight on for long if the price of Urals crude came down to $50 a barrel: and this is something Trump can do. Serious sanctions against Russia and those who buy its oil are within his power and would deliver results. Further US sanctions will eventually bring the “death by one thousand cuts” to the Russian economy.
Meanwhile we in Europe must, as Trump says, do our part. Like it or not, Putin’s illegal invasion over three years ago has brought the Cold War back to Europe, which could at any time turn hot. There will be less US force in Europe than there was in the old Cold War, too, so we should not merely arm ourselves as we did then: we need to do better. We must prepare for war or be prepared to lose. The Baltic States and Poland know they are next on Putin’s list for subjugation and if that happens, we are all at war in Europe.
Here in Britain, with the Strategic Defence Review about to land, talk of a new Home Guard might not be as drastic and outlandish as some commentators have suggested. The leaked version appears to have been devised by expensive flashy consultants, who have probably never been near the battlefield or even the British Army. In fact we already have an excellent Army Reserve, who I’m sure would jump at real tasks to protect critical national infrastructure in their districts. There are also 100,000 or so trained ex-military who should be used much better than hitherto. Both these organisations have been critically underfunded as part of the peace dividend. If these organisations were properly funded there would be no particular need for a new Home Guard.
When Putin looked west on the 24 Feb 22, he did not see a viable conventional deterrence. When he looks west tomorrow, he must see a powerful coalition in Europe that is able to send him whence he came.
President Trump has finally admitted to European leaders this week that Putin has no interest in peace – not least because he thinks he’s winning. The great dealmaker appears to have got nowhere in his marathon chat with the Russian president and it is easy to get the feeling that he’s giving up. Certainly, his close team are giving off a very strong vibe that they would be happiest to distance themselves from what appears to be an intractable challenge.
The fact is that Trump and is team have bombastically and naively stumbled around in their efforts to end the fighting in Ukraine, arrogantly thinking they knew better than anyone else who had been involved. When dealing with blood and guts, rather than real estate, they have been so totally out manoeuvred by the poker-faced tyrant in the Kremlin that is easy to conclude that Trump might be making things worse for the Ukrainians and Europe rather than better. As we all pause and hang on Trump’s every word, Putin cracks on with his stated plan to re-establish the Soviet Union’s westward boundaries.
Putin has not changed his position one inch since the start of the war. The Russian demands for a ceasefire – that Ukrainian withdrawals from all four oblasts that Russian partly controls and disengages from the West – are impossible for President Zelensky countenance. Putin knows this and he also knows that for his own longevity in the Kremlin and probably his personal survival he must achieve at least his primary objective of subjugating Ukraine.
But Putin could not fight on for long if the price of Urals crude came down to $50 a barrel: and this is something Trump can do. Serious sanctions against Russia and those who buy its oil are within his power and would deliver results. Further US sanctions will eventually bring the “death by one thousand cuts” to the Russian economy.
Meanwhile we in Europe must, as Trump says, do our part. Like it or not, Putin’s illegal invasion over three years ago has brought the Cold War back to Europe, which could at any time turn hot. There will be less US force in Europe than there was in the old Cold War, too, so we should not merely arm ourselves as we did then: we need to do better. We must prepare for war or be prepared to lose. The Baltic States and Poland know they are next on Putin’s list for subjugation and if that happens, we are all at war in Europe.
Here in Britain, with the Strategic Defence Review about to land, talk of a new Home Guard might not be as drastic and outlandish as some commentators have suggested. The leaked version appears to have been devised by expensive flashy consultants, who have probably never been near the battlefield or even the British Army. In fact we already have an excellent Army Reserve, who I’m sure would jump at real tasks to protect critical national infrastructure in their districts. There are also 100,000 or so trained ex-military who should be used much better than hitherto. Both these organisations have been critically underfunded as part of the peace dividend. If these organisations were properly funded there would be no particular need for a new Home Guard.
When Putin looked west on the 24 Feb 22, he did not see a viable conventional deterrence. When he looks west tomorrow, he must see a powerful coalition in Europe that is able to send him whence he came.