As Ukraine gets the Western weapons it has so desperately been requesting, the tanks will be more vulnerable to attack.
If that’s the case, Russia would need to get creative and lessen their reliance on the turtles. This may have several outcomes.
First, the Russians might use uncrewed ground vehicles, which are being rapidly developed by both sides for electronic breaching operations.
Second, the physical breaching of minefields and other obstacles might be conducted by new types of unmanned ground vehicles (UGVs). This could include kamikaze UGVs and UGVs that lay out explosive line charges. There are already prototypes of such vehicles being developed.
Third, crewed armoured vehicles might appear with better drone defences, camouflage, and electronic counter-measures.
By dispersing the tasks these turtle tanks currently undertake to smaller, uncrewed vehicles, Russia can spread the risk of its operations to ensure success with other units.
Don’t let its moniker fool you
The turtle tank is a weird-looking beast, very specific to this conflict. Ukraine is already finding ways of countering it and consigning it to history. It is unlikely to appear in other warzones.
But it shows how resourceful the Russians can be, having learnt to adapt to Ukraine’s various innovations throughout the war and break through with some of its own.
The tank’s moniker might conjure the image of a slow-moving and placid animal, but don’t let that fool you, Russia remains a dangerous and unpredictable adversary.
Mick Ryan is a retired major general in the Australian Army, a fellow at the Lowy Institute and an adjunct fellow at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies.