Keir Starmer deserves credit for pulling off a chummy summit with Donald Trump that handed the UK lots of “wins”. Emmanuel Macron famously touched Trump’s knee; Starmer merely massaged his shoulder. But we take from this event that the UK/US relationship, though choppy, remains sentimental.
But then that only surprises you if you thought Trump meant literally everything he’s said about Ukraine in the past few days.
Much of the West has had a knickers-twisting, pencil-up-the-nose mental breakdown over his outreach to Russia and calling Zelensky a “dictator” – a phrase he probably never meant and now doubts he ever used (is Trump calling Trump a liar?!). But this is how the Prez works: he puts out wild ideas, stirs the pot, while working privately for a deal. Make him a good offer, he’ll probably take it.
And the price of continued British influence in Washington? Two nights bed and board at Buckingham Palace. The most unstable man in world affairs turns out to be utterly predictable.
There were some surprises that will shake up UK politics. For the Left, it seems that Trump likes Britain even if David Lammy and Peter Mandelson are on record disliking him. The President, pointing out the return of Winston Churchill’s bust to the Oval Office, admires our history. Perhaps the Left should stop trying to cancel it.
Also, Brexit might deliver an economic win. As we’re outside the EU, Trump doesn’t class us as part of the European conspiracy against the US car industry, so we’ll hopefully escape his tariffs. But the eurosceptic Right shouldn’t feel smug, for Trump also appeared cautiously to endorse Starmer’s Chagos deal, in a major blow to the Tories and Reform. Their argument had heft so long as they could say “America actually opposes this...” but if Trump is on board, it’s hard to see it being stopped.
Be this a lesson for any UK player tempted to deploy Trump as an ally in domestic politics: he puts himself first and will drop a cause if it gets in the way of his national priorities.
Trump has signalled a shift in the world order, away from an open-ended guarantee of US support for European security while he focuses on new priorities such as border control and China. It sounds plausible that America will remain in some capacity in a postwar Ukraine – but only to defend its mineral rights, not as part of an open-ended liberal mission to rescue democracy (“dig we must!” said Trump). The “backstop” is US economic self-interest.
Starmer and co see Trump’s actions as destabilising but also an opportunity, on two fronts. First, it’s a chance to reframe Europe as a political and military power in its own right – a more reliable progressive force in the long-run.
Second, the PM wants Britain to act as a bridge between the US and Europe, trying to persuade Trump that his self-interest coincides with European self-defence. His increase in military spending to 2.5 per cent of GDP signals that the UK is willing to invest in the project. “I’m all in,” said Starmer. Well done, replied Trump; could go higher.
Labour is attempting to rescue what Lammy calls “progressive realism”, ie the promotion of pet liberal projects, such as development and decolonisation, as adjusted to the realities of a world ringed by authoritarians chipping away at the rules based order. To be nice, one must be prepared to be nasty. Britain needs a serious army and must work with populists like Trump.
Washington, meanwhile, is flirting with a “conservative realism”, which flips the equation. The new American Right begins by emphasising national self-interest. But this priority needn’t/shouldn’t be amoral; there remains a role for virtue in world affairs; and even authoritarian states, such as Saudi Arabia, can be encouraged to pursue virtuous ends such as peace in the Middle East.
Trump often mentions his hatred of war, on this occasion describing the horror of Ukraine as a “spiral of death”. But though he played up his recent phone calls with Putin as “very successful”, Trump did not describe peace as “at hand” but “It’ll either be fairly soon or it won’t be at all.” In other words, all this crazy posting and controversy is a theatrical process; what matters is the behind-the-scenes talks, and they’ve only begun.
Moreover, world order is only possible if the forces of democracy are strong – something Starmer clearly agrees with, hence his reiteration of “peace through strength” – and thus some Americans, such as Marco Rubio, see winding down the war in Ukraine not as a retreat but a strategic reset. The US needs to regroup and refocus, in particular, on the threat of China.
What I’m saying is this: contrary to the hair-on-fire panic we’ve heard from so many commentators since Trump’s inauguration, the new administration is quite rational and can be worked with.
At root, its concerns are material. The President has begun this second, final – and thus conducted in a hurry – term by carrying out a massive audit of American trade and spending, not just abroad but at home, where he’s attempting to sack thousands of federal employees and find savings in government programmes.
Why? Because conservatives are convinced their country is on the verge of fiscal breakdown and see this as a once-in-a-generation opportunity to turn USA Ltd from a failing company to a profit maker. Is this so different from the Starmer/Reeves project? In method, yes. In confronting the reality that the West is dying – suffocated by low growth and declining self-confidence – it swims in the same zeitgeist.
So, yes, well done Keir: being calm and analytical has paid off. “You’re a very tough negotiator,” said the Prez, “I’m not sure I like that.” Those words will be repeated by Labour ad infinitum, and weaponised against Reform.
But Britain could probably have sent any prime minister to see Trump and, if they’ve half a brain, they’d get a similarly warm reception – because the President is not mad and has good reason to treat us seriously. The best comedy, on this occasion, was offered not by Trump but the parallel arrival of Starmer at the White House with the Tate brothers landing in Florida – covered by Sky News as if of equal weight. One British export the Americans are welcome to keep.
Keir Starmer deserves credit for pulling off a chummy summit with Donald Trump that handed the UK lots of “wins”. Emmanuel Macron famously touched Trump’s knee; Starmer merely massaged his shoulder. But we take from this event that the UK/US relationship, though choppy, remains sentimental.
But then that only surprises you if you thought Trump meant literally everything he’s said about Ukraine in the past few days.
Much of the West has had a knickers-twisting, pencil-up-the-nose mental breakdown over his outreach to Russia and calling Zelensky a “dictator” – a phrase he probably never meant and now doubts he ever used (is Trump calling Trump a liar?!). But this is how the Prez works: he puts out wild ideas, stirs the pot, while working privately for a deal. Make him a good offer, he’ll probably take it.
And the price of continued British influence in Washington? Two nights bed and board at Buckingham Palace. The most unstable man in world affairs turns out to be utterly predictable.
There were some surprises that will shake up UK politics. For the Left, it seems that Trump likes Britain even if David Lammy and Peter Mandelson are on record disliking him. The President, pointing out the return of Winston Churchill’s bust to the Oval Office, admires our history. Perhaps the Left should stop trying to cancel it.
Also, Brexit might deliver an economic win. As we’re outside the EU, Trump doesn’t class us as part of the European conspiracy against the US car industry, so we’ll hopefully escape his tariffs. But the eurosceptic Right shouldn’t feel smug, for Trump also appeared cautiously to endorse Starmer’s Chagos deal, in a major blow to the Tories and Reform. Their argument had heft so long as they could say “America actually opposes this...” but if Trump is on board, it’s hard to see it being stopped.
Be this a lesson for any UK player tempted to deploy Trump as an ally in domestic politics: he puts himself first and will drop a cause if it gets in the way of his national priorities.
Trump has signalled a shift in the world order, away from an open-ended guarantee of US support for European security while he focuses on new priorities such as border control and China. It sounds plausible that America will remain in some capacity in a postwar Ukraine – but only to defend its mineral rights, not as part of an open-ended liberal mission to rescue democracy (“dig we must!” said Trump). The “backstop” is US economic self-interest.
Starmer and co see Trump’s actions as destabilising but also an opportunity, on two fronts. First, it’s a chance to reframe Europe as a political and military power in its own right – a more reliable progressive force in the long-run.
Second, the PM wants Britain to act as a bridge between the US and Europe, trying to persuade Trump that his self-interest coincides with European self-defence. His increase in military spending to 2.5 per cent of GDP signals that the UK is willing to invest in the project. “I’m all in,” said Starmer. Well done, replied Trump; could go higher.
Labour is attempting to rescue what Lammy calls “progressive realism”, ie the promotion of pet liberal projects, such as development and decolonisation, as adjusted to the realities of a world ringed by authoritarians chipping away at the rules based order. To be nice, one must be prepared to be nasty. Britain needs a serious army and must work with populists like Trump.
Washington, meanwhile, is flirting with a “conservative realism”, which flips the equation. The new American Right begins by emphasising national self-interest. But this priority needn’t/shouldn’t be amoral; there remains a role for virtue in world affairs; and even authoritarian states, such as Saudi Arabia, can be encouraged to pursue virtuous ends such as peace in the Middle East.
Trump often mentions his hatred of war, on this occasion describing the horror of Ukraine as a “spiral of death”. But though he played up his recent phone calls with Putin as “very successful”, Trump did not describe peace as “at hand” but “It’ll either be fairly soon or it won’t be at all.” In other words, all this crazy posting and controversy is a theatrical process; what matters is the behind-the-scenes talks, and they’ve only begun.
Moreover, world order is only possible if the forces of democracy are strong – something Starmer clearly agrees with, hence his reiteration of “peace through strength” – and thus some Americans, such as Marco Rubio, see winding down the war in Ukraine not as a retreat but a strategic reset. The US needs to regroup and refocus, in particular, on the threat of China.
What I’m saying is this: contrary to the hair-on-fire panic we’ve heard from so many commentators since Trump’s inauguration, the new administration is quite rational and can be worked with.
At root, its concerns are material. The President has begun this second, final – and thus conducted in a hurry – term by carrying out a massive audit of American trade and spending, not just abroad but at home, where he’s attempting to sack thousands of federal employees and find savings in government programmes.
Why? Because conservatives are convinced their country is on the verge of fiscal breakdown and see this as a once-in-a-generation opportunity to turn USA Ltd from a failing company to a profit maker. Is this so different from the Starmer/Reeves project? In method, yes. In confronting the reality that the West is dying – suffocated by low growth and declining self-confidence – it swims in the same zeitgeist.
So, yes, well done Keir: being calm and analytical has paid off. “You’re a very tough negotiator,” said the Prez, “I’m not sure I like that.” Those words will be repeated by Labour ad infinitum, and weaponised against Reform.
But Britain could probably have sent any prime minister to see Trump and, if they’ve half a brain, they’d get a similarly warm reception – because the President is not mad and has good reason to treat us seriously. The best comedy, on this occasion, was offered not by Trump but the parallel arrival of Starmer at the White House with the Tate brothers landing in Florida – covered by Sky News as if of equal weight. One British export the Americans are welcome to keep.