The true master of the art of the deal is Vladimir Putin, not Donald Trump. Though no agreement was formally struck by the two leaders at their summit in Anchorage, Alaska, Putin did succeed in setting the agenda for the endgame of the Ukraine war.
First and foremost, the meeting underscored that an eventual final deal will be struck between Washington and Moscow, and then handed down to lesser mortals such as European leaders and Volodymyr Zelensky for approval.
Second, Putin made it clear that he sees the resolution of the Ukraine war as part of a much larger and more important re-set in relations with America. Peace in Ukraine, in Putin’s vision, will be packaged alongside lucrative joint ventures with US companies in oil and gas, minerals, and space technology – and will of course be accompanied by a rapid lifting of US sanctions.
Thirdly, Trump has effectively abandoned all his previous ultimatums threatening “serious consequences” for Putin if he does not immediately cease and desist from killing Ukrainians. Instead, Putin has replaced a series of escalating threats with a nebulous peace process that could potentially take months.
Finally, Putin made it clear that he is not interested in a ceasefire followed by talks but instead will continue to push into Ukrainian territory as negotiations proceed. That’s a major climbdown for Trump, who previously insisted that a ceasefire was his most urgent priority.
It’s depressingly clear that Putin’s demands have changed little since his invasion of 2022, from incorporating majority Russian-speaking parts of Ukraine into Russia to insisting that Kyiv never joins Nato. And it seems that Trump is ready to accede to most of the Kremlin’s talking points.
When asked by Fox News’s Sean Hannity whether the agreements he’d reached with Putin in Anchorage included “land swaps” and “a security measure that won’t be Nato-related,” Trump replied that “those are points that we negotiated and points that we largely have agreed upon.”
Cryptically, Trump alluded to at least one major Russian demand on which there was disagreement, but refused to give details. According to one senior Western official who listened in on Trump’s call to European leaders, this is a reference to Putin’s demand for Ukraine to hand over territory in Donbas that Russia has not yet captured, including the cities of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. In exchange, Russia would be willing to give up other, much smaller and less strategically important pieces of territory it currently holds in Sumy and Kharkiv provinces.
Clearly, Putin’s demand is outrageous. Ceding the territory that Russia already occupies, even de facto rather than de jure, will be enormously politically painful for Zelensky. But giving up yet more Ukrainian land is unthinkable – and maybe practically impossible, as Ukrainian front line units might refuse to obey orders to withdraw.
But therein lies Putin’s fiendish mastery of the art of the deal. By focusing negotiations on a demand for land that is unachievable, Putin avoids giving up something that would actually be seen as a loss. And when Putin eventually gives in and concedes that he won’t be getting any more of Donbas without fighting for it, he will be sure to couch that climbdown as a major concession.
Trump paid lip service to Ukraine having to agree to terms of a final deal. But he’s also made it clear that if Zelensky refuses, the US will walk away. “Lots of luck, keep fighting,” Trump warned last week. That would leave Ukraine to resist the Russian onslaught alone, with only a shaky alliance of Europeans to back him up.
The Anchorage summit marked the beginning of the end of the Ukraine war. But by flattering Trump and framing the conflict as just a detail of a larger re-set in Russian-US relations, Putin has made sure that the final act will be played out on the Kremlin’s terms.
The true master of the art of the deal is Vladimir Putin, not Donald Trump. Though no agreement was formally struck by the two leaders at their summit in Anchorage, Alaska, Putin did succeed in setting the agenda for the endgame of the Ukraine war.
First and foremost, the meeting underscored that an eventual final deal will be struck between Washington and Moscow, and then handed down to lesser mortals such as European leaders and Volodymyr Zelensky for approval.
Second, Putin made it clear that he sees the resolution of the Ukraine war as part of a much larger and more important re-set in relations with America. Peace in Ukraine, in Putin’s vision, will be packaged alongside lucrative joint ventures with US companies in oil and gas, minerals, and space technology – and will of course be accompanied by a rapid lifting of US sanctions.
Thirdly, Trump has effectively abandoned all his previous ultimatums threatening “serious consequences” for Putin if he does not immediately cease and desist from killing Ukrainians. Instead, Putin has replaced a series of escalating threats with a nebulous peace process that could potentially take months.
Finally, Putin made it clear that he is not interested in a ceasefire followed by talks but instead will continue to push into Ukrainian territory as negotiations proceed. That’s a major climbdown for Trump, who previously insisted that a ceasefire was his most urgent priority.
It’s depressingly clear that Putin’s demands have changed little since his invasion of 2022, from incorporating majority Russian-speaking parts of Ukraine into Russia to insisting that Kyiv never joins Nato. And it seems that Trump is ready to accede to most of the Kremlin’s talking points.
When asked by Fox News’s Sean Hannity whether the agreements he’d reached with Putin in Anchorage included “land swaps” and “a security measure that won’t be Nato-related,” Trump replied that “those are points that we negotiated and points that we largely have agreed upon.”
Cryptically, Trump alluded to at least one major Russian demand on which there was disagreement, but refused to give details. According to one senior Western official who listened in on Trump’s call to European leaders, this is a reference to Putin’s demand for Ukraine to hand over territory in Donbas that Russia has not yet captured, including the cities of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. In exchange, Russia would be willing to give up other, much smaller and less strategically important pieces of territory it currently holds in Sumy and Kharkiv provinces.
Clearly, Putin’s demand is outrageous. Ceding the territory that Russia already occupies, even de facto rather than de jure, will be enormously politically painful for Zelensky. But giving up yet more Ukrainian land is unthinkable – and maybe practically impossible, as Ukrainian front line units might refuse to obey orders to withdraw.
But therein lies Putin’s fiendish mastery of the art of the deal. By focusing negotiations on a demand for land that is unachievable, Putin avoids giving up something that would actually be seen as a loss. And when Putin eventually gives in and concedes that he won’t be getting any more of Donbas without fighting for it, he will be sure to couch that climbdown as a major concession.
Trump paid lip service to Ukraine having to agree to terms of a final deal. But he’s also made it clear that if Zelensky refuses, the US will walk away. “Lots of luck, keep fighting,” Trump warned last week. That would leave Ukraine to resist the Russian onslaught alone, with only a shaky alliance of Europeans to back him up.
The Anchorage summit marked the beginning of the end of the Ukraine war. But by flattering Trump and framing the conflict as just a detail of a larger re-set in Russian-US relations, Putin has made sure that the final act will be played out on the Kremlin’s terms.