For years, commentators have been drawing different conclusions from UK immigration statistics. Each release is pored over by special advisers, looking to find some chink of light in them which might undermine their political opponents. Press releases are issued based upon who is doing a better job on reducing immigration numbers – something the British public has been promised, but hasn’t seen, for decades. Meanwhile both Labour and Conservatives alike have apologised for their errors of the past, promising to do better next time. But can they? Will they?

As Mark Twain put it many moons ago there are three kinds of lies – lies, damned lies, and statistics.

Most of the current focus is on the number of small boat arrivals from France, not least because this is the most visible affront to our border security. From “stopping the boats” to “smashing the gangs”, politicians have come up with slogans designed to persuade people that they have the answer to this. But so far nobody has, and the boats keep coming. Stopping them is a really difficult thing to do. It involves complex matters of international law and agreements, which are not entirely within the government’s control.