Anticipation of Georgia’s parliamentary election, held this Saturday, brings memories of events taking place in Ukraine a little more than a decade ago, full of hope and trepidation.
In an echo of Kyiv’s Maidan, tens of thousands of Georgians came to central Tbilisi to sing Beethoven’s ‘Ode to Joy’ and demonstrate their commitment to the country’s European future – shared by a vast majority of the public (some 80 percent, in fact) who want their country to join the EU.
Opinion polls suggest that the opposition stands a decent chance of controlling the country’s next legislature.
At the same time, the ruling Georgian Dream party shows no readiness for a peaceful transfer of power in case of a defeat. This week, the Government has stepped up its intimidation of its opponents and civil society, raiding apartments of Georgian researchers associated with the Atlantic Council, a Washington DC think tank.
Just what the party of the Russia-connected oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili does in face of a defeat at the polls is an open question. Ukraine’s own past provides a worrying hint.
In 2014, Ukrainians also fought and died for their country’s association agreement with the EU. The eventual success of the protests and departure of the country’s pro-Russian clique prompted the Kremlin to invade Donbas and annex Crimea.
A decade later, Ukrainians are facing a genocidal war aimed at erasing not only their geopolitical choices as well as their nationhood.
Georgia too faced Russian aggression – in Abkhazia in the early 1990s as well as in 2008. Like Ukraine, Georgians long demanded and were denied effective security guarantees: NATO membership.
Neither Russia’s 2008 attack on Georgia nor its invasion of Ukraine in 2014 prompted an effective response by the collective West, which could re-establish deterrence.
One may hope that poor performance of Russia’s military in Ukraine and massive casualties (currently north of half a million dead and wounded) will eventually disabuse Vladimir Putin of his imperial ambitions.
Anticipation of Georgia’s parliamentary election, held this Saturday, brings memories of events taking place in Ukraine a little more than a decade ago, full of hope and trepidation.
In an echo of Kyiv’s Maidan, tens of thousands of Georgians came to central Tbilisi to sing Beethoven’s ‘Ode to Joy’ and demonstrate their commitment to the country’s European future – shared by a vast majority of the public (some 80 percent, in fact) who want their country to join the EU.
Opinion polls suggest that the opposition stands a decent chance of controlling the country’s next legislature.
At the same time, the ruling Georgian Dream party shows no readiness for a peaceful transfer of power in case of a defeat. This week, the Government has stepped up its intimidation of its opponents and civil society, raiding apartments of Georgian researchers associated with the Atlantic Council, a Washington DC think tank.
Just what the party of the Russia-connected oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili does in face of a defeat at the polls is an open question. Ukraine’s own past provides a worrying hint.
In 2014, Ukrainians also fought and died for their country’s association agreement with the EU. The eventual success of the protests and departure of the country’s pro-Russian clique prompted the Kremlin to invade Donbas and annex Crimea.
A decade later, Ukrainians are facing a genocidal war aimed at erasing not only their geopolitical choices as well as their nationhood.
Georgia too faced Russian aggression – in Abkhazia in the early 1990s as well as in 2008. Like Ukraine, Georgians long demanded and were denied effective security guarantees: NATO membership.
Neither Russia’s 2008 attack on Georgia nor its invasion of Ukraine in 2014 prompted an effective response by the collective West, which could re-establish deterrence.
One may hope that poor performance of Russia’s military in Ukraine and massive casualties (currently north of half a million dead and wounded) will eventually disabuse Vladimir Putin of his imperial ambitions.