It is hard to think of a political leader who has had their legacy so fundamentally dismantled by their immediate successors than former New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern. The successful passage this week of legislation to undo her ban on off-shore oil and gas exploration is the most recent example of her well-meaning but often economically illiterate policy agenda being undone by her conservative successor, former businessman Chris Luxon.
Ardern came into office somewhat unexpectedly, finishing a distinct second in 2017 but, thanks to New Zealand’s proportional voting system, was able to form a government that stretched from the far-left Green Party to the populist-right New Zealand First. Her agenda seemed to, like Justin Trudeau in Canada, follow whatever the current right-thinking mindset thought was important, including anti-car legislation (such as the ‘Ute Tax’ and significantly lower nationwide speed limits), radical race relations policies (particularly around so-called co-governance, giving Maori a disproportionate role in government decision making and entrenching race-based constituencies at every level) and climate alarmism.
There are certainly plenty of examples of well-meaning but economically or socially harmful policies. A major light rail infrastructure project that after five years had created more paperwork than track laid. A child poverty action plan that had 4,500 more children in poverty at the end of her time in Government than at the start. A crime policy that repealed the previous conservative government’s “Three Strikes” law that resulted in higher (and rising) violent crime rates at the end of Labour’s time in office. A foolhardy approach to public finances which an economist at New Zealand’s largest bank called a “debt-fuelled spending spree” that was projected by the Government’s own figures to result in a permanent structural deficit.
Ardern’s announcement of her resignation in 2023 came as a shock to many, but probably should not have done. Her leadership had become unpopular, and the Labour Party was struggling to break 30 per cent in polling, comparable to the level of polling Labour was at when she replaced her predecessor in 2017.
And it did not take long for her party to start undoing her agenda in an attempt to appeal to the voters in advance of the General Election held later that year. Controversial schemes around water regulation and management (always a touchstone issue in a country with a major agricultural sector), welfare reform, lowering the voting age and hate speech legislation were either shelved or put on the back burner until after the General Election. Her replacement, Chris Hipkins, said his plan was instead to focus on the “bread and butter issues facing New Zealand families”. While nothing overt was said, the implicit comparison with the focus of his predecessor as Labour leader and Prime Minister could not have been stronger.
Despite Labour’s best efforts (and deliberately keeping Ardern out of the campaign), Labour went down to a devastating defeat later in 2023, losing almost half their vote and seats from 2020. Since then, Luxon and his National-led government have worked hard to undo even more of the Ardern legacy. Gone are the often absurd efforts to incorporate Maori tradition into modern governance and science. Punitive taxes on cars and fuel have been abolished. Spending is falling (slower than some might like, but the country is on track to balance the books) and taxes are lower.
But fundamentally the difference is one of mindset. Ardern’s government represented the nadir of the idea that outcomes were less important than intentions. This was exemplified by the idea that having a policy called a “child poverty reduction strategy” and spending large amounts of borrowed money on it was more important than measuring the results. It is interesting that during the six years Labour was in power the yearly benchmarks that the previous government introduced on health, crime, education and economic outcomes were quietly shelved, Ardern preferring to rely on vibes than statistics.
The approach by the hard-headed Luxon could not be more different. Vibes are out, results are in.
It is hard to think of a political leader who has had their legacy so fundamentally dismantled by their immediate successors than former New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern. The successful passage this week of legislation to undo her ban on off-shore oil and gas exploration is the most recent example of her well-meaning but often economically illiterate policy agenda being undone by her conservative successor, former businessman Chris Luxon.
Ardern came into office somewhat unexpectedly, finishing a distinct second in 2017 but, thanks to New Zealand’s proportional voting system, was able to form a government that stretched from the far-left Green Party to the populist-right New Zealand First. Her agenda seemed to, like Justin Trudeau in Canada, follow whatever the current right-thinking mindset thought was important, including anti-car legislation (such as the ‘Ute Tax’ and significantly lower nationwide speed limits), radical race relations policies (particularly around so-called co-governance, giving Maori a disproportionate role in government decision making and entrenching race-based constituencies at every level) and climate alarmism.
There are certainly plenty of examples of well-meaning but economically or socially harmful policies. A major light rail infrastructure project that after five years had created more paperwork than track laid. A child poverty action plan that had 4,500 more children in poverty at the end of her time in Government than at the start. A crime policy that repealed the previous conservative government’s “Three Strikes” law that resulted in higher (and rising) violent crime rates at the end of Labour’s time in office. A foolhardy approach to public finances which an economist at New Zealand’s largest bank called a “debt-fuelled spending spree” that was projected by the Government’s own figures to result in a permanent structural deficit.
Ardern’s announcement of her resignation in 2023 came as a shock to many, but probably should not have done. Her leadership had become unpopular, and the Labour Party was struggling to break 30 per cent in polling, comparable to the level of polling Labour was at when she replaced her predecessor in 2017.
And it did not take long for her party to start undoing her agenda in an attempt to appeal to the voters in advance of the General Election held later that year. Controversial schemes around water regulation and management (always a touchstone issue in a country with a major agricultural sector), welfare reform, lowering the voting age and hate speech legislation were either shelved or put on the back burner until after the General Election. Her replacement, Chris Hipkins, said his plan was instead to focus on the “bread and butter issues facing New Zealand families”. While nothing overt was said, the implicit comparison with the focus of his predecessor as Labour leader and Prime Minister could not have been stronger.
Despite Labour’s best efforts (and deliberately keeping Ardern out of the campaign), Labour went down to a devastating defeat later in 2023, losing almost half their vote and seats from 2020. Since then, Luxon and his National-led government have worked hard to undo even more of the Ardern legacy. Gone are the often absurd efforts to incorporate Maori tradition into modern governance and science. Punitive taxes on cars and fuel have been abolished. Spending is falling (slower than some might like, but the country is on track to balance the books) and taxes are lower.
But fundamentally the difference is one of mindset. Ardern’s government represented the nadir of the idea that outcomes were less important than intentions. This was exemplified by the idea that having a policy called a “child poverty reduction strategy” and spending large amounts of borrowed money on it was more important than measuring the results. It is interesting that during the six years Labour was in power the yearly benchmarks that the previous government introduced on health, crime, education and economic outcomes were quietly shelved, Ardern preferring to rely on vibes than statistics.
The approach by the hard-headed Luxon could not be more different. Vibes are out, results are in.