When Sir Keir Starmer sits down face-to-face with Donald Trump in the Oval Office on Thursday it will be the greatest test yet of a strategy carefully planned for months.
Ever since Mr Trump’s win in November’s presidential election, the Prime Minister and his team have adopted a “softly softly” approach to their new opposite number.
It is an attempt to carefully differentiate between the Trump declarations that dominate the news cycle and those issues that have a tangible impact on British national interests.
One Foreign Office insider calls it the “keep calm and carry on” approach. The point is simple: Do not bite on everything Mr Trump says. Instead, focus on what really matters.
Care taken when disagreeing
The proof points can be seen in recent weeks, as the British Government has tried to strike that balance between defending UK interests and not angering the president.
When Mr Trump mused on invading Greenland, David Lammy, the Foreign Secretary, did not join other EU ministers in castigation, instead saying the president did not really mean it.
When Brussels issued a coded warning it would hit back if the Trump administration targeted Europe with tariffs, Downing Street kept its head down and declined to do likewise.
Even when Sir Keir’s team felt they had to push back – Mr Trump’s claim last week that Volodymyr Zelensky was a dictator for not holding elections – care was taken.
The Prime Minister was not pushed in front of a camera to issue condemnation on TV. Instead, he called the Ukrainian president and a readout confirmed Sir Keir defended not holding a vote.
These are examples of what Lord Mandelson has made his watchword for his time as our man in Washington: “Don’t be afraid to express your view but always show respect as you do so.”
Which is all well and good, but to prove the strategy works you need to deliver on the other part of the equation: Using your influence to get “wins” for the UK. Which is why Thursday looms so large.
UK wants US security guarantee in Ukraine
Sir Keir – and before him Emmanuel Macron, the French president who sees Mr Trump on Monday – must somehow nudge a US leader echoing Moscow’s talking points back towards Europe.
The Prime Minister’s public statements over the past fortnight, as European leaders come to terms with a rhetorical assault from Mr Trump’s senior team, offer clues as to what he is seeking most from Washington.
For one, the US must agree to be a “backstop” to any European peace-keeping force sent into Ukraine to ensure a ceasefire deal does not ultimately lead to another Russian invasion.
Quite what the shape of those security guarantees could be remains unclear. Air cover? Logistical help behind the scenes? An agreement to step in if Western troops get attacked?
Getting the US president to accept what the Foreign Office believes is plain logic – that the deterrence of a Western peace-keeping force only works with US backing – will be key.
Then there is the approach to talks. European leaders are insistent on the need for both they and Ukraine to be at the negotiating table. Mr Trump has dismissed the idea.
Sir Keir is expected to use his time in the Oval Office to argue only a sustainable peace will be a “win” for Mr Trump, and that will only happen if Europe is four-square behind it.
Prime Minister to favour carrot over stick
There will be other non-Ukraine requests. The meeting will be the first chance for the Prime Minister to make his argument in person that the UK is not worth hitting with tariffs.
He knows, too, that the fate of his deal to give away the Chagos Islands rests entirely on the president – though whether it will even be discussed on Thursday remains unclear.
To boost his chances of success, Sir Keir will favour the carrot over the stick. He is expected to finally name the date when he will increase defence spending to 2.5 per cent of GDP.
There will also be an invite on behalf of the King for a state visit, an unsubtle attempt to use the president’s adoration of the Royals, inherited from his Scottish mother, to greatest effect.
On Sunday, Bridget Phillipson, the Education Secretary, offered the latest “softly softly” display, insisting it was right for Mr Trump to call Vladimir Putin for Ukraine discussions.
Sir Keir will no doubt attempt the same in the joint press conference due after their meeting on Thursday, side-stepping reporter attempts to get him to contradict the man by his side.
Come his overnight flight home, however, it will be an awful lot clearer about whether the Prime Minister’s approach is actually delivering results or simply a bended knee.