Russia has almost certainly shot down another civilian plane. On Wednesday morning, Azerbaijan Airlines Flight 8243 crashed in Aktau, Kazakhstan killing 38 people and injuring 29 others. The crash was precipitated by a Russian Pantsir S-1 anti-aircraft missile strike and the alleged refusal of Russian air traffic controllers to grant the plane an emergency landing in a North Caucasus airport.
Russia responded to this tragedy with a familiar mix of obfuscation and disinformation. In a phone call to his Azerbaijani counterpart Ilham Aliyev, Russian President Vladimir Putin issued a non-apology for a “tragic incident that occurred in Russian airspace” and did not take responsibility for the crash.
Russian media outlets have published conspiracy theories to obfuscate the inconvenient truth of what caused the crash. Former Kremlin advisor Sergey Markov blamed the plane’s downing on a misfired Ukrainian UAV strike. Force majeure rationales like an engine breakdown and collision with a flock of migrating birds have also featured prominently.
This “firehouse of falsehoods” propaganda strategy mirrors the Kremlin’s response to the July 2014 Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crash, which was shot down by a Buk surface-to-air-missile in Russian-occupied eastern Ukraine. But with one key difference: Russian disinformation was much more effective then than it is now.
After the MH17 shootdown, Russia used allegations of Ukrainian culpability and vigorous denials to polarise international opinion. Western countries linked the MH-17 disaster to Russia’s illegal invasion of eastern Ukraine and used it as a casus-belli for stiffer sanctions against Russia. The Global South largely remained neutral or amplified the Kremlin’s denials of military assistance to the Donbas separatist militias that perpetrated the attack.
Emboldened by its disinformation success, Russia successfully repeated this playbook after its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The March 2022 Bucha Massacre, which saw Russian forces kill hundreds of unarmed civilians in the outskirts of Kyiv, was a case in point.
By describing the massacre as a staged provocation from Ukraine to secure Nato-class weaponry, Russia planted seeds of doubt amongst anti-Western partners in the Global South. This allowed Russia to avoid international isolation and buttress against the impact of Western sanctions.
This time around, there are signs that Russian disinformation is wearing thin. Azerbaijani MP Rasim Musabekov asked Russia to formally apologise for its role in the latest plane crash and Azerbaijani media outlets are urging Russia to pay reparations to the crash’s victims.
Russia’s refusal to take responsibility for the incident has shaken international confidence in the safety of its airspace and ability to prevent a similar accident from transpiring. Israel’s El-Al airline, FlyDubai and Kazakhstan’s Qazaq Air are amongst the carriers that have either scaled back or indefinitely suspended flight paths to Russia.
As Russia’s standing as a crisis-proof ally was exposed by its inability to defend Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, it can ill afford further damage to its credibility in the post-Soviet space and Global South. While the shutdown of the State Department’s Global Engagement Centre and funding cuts to the BBC World Service complicate matters, the West needs to proactively capitalise on Russian disinformation’s newfound weaknesses.
As the impending closure of the Russia-Ukraine gas transit route undermines Moscow’s grip on occupied Transnistria, Moldova is a critical frontline against Russian disinformation. As is the South Caucasus, where Russia is propping up the Georgian Dream’s autocratic regime and is trying to thwart Armenia’s embrace of Europe, and Africa, where Russia is trying to reassure its security partners that it will not abandon them like it did to Assad.
Cracks have appeared in the edifice of Russia’s disinformation machinery. Now is the time for the West to step up its game.
Russia has almost certainly shot down another civilian plane. On Wednesday morning, Azerbaijan Airlines Flight 8243 crashed in Aktau, Kazakhstan killing 38 people and injuring 29 others. The crash was precipitated by a Russian Pantsir S-1 anti-aircraft missile strike and the alleged refusal of Russian air traffic controllers to grant the plane an emergency landing in a North Caucasus airport.
Russia responded to this tragedy with a familiar mix of obfuscation and disinformation. In a phone call to his Azerbaijani counterpart Ilham Aliyev, Russian President Vladimir Putin issued a non-apology for a “tragic incident that occurred in Russian airspace” and did not take responsibility for the crash.
Russian media outlets have published conspiracy theories to obfuscate the inconvenient truth of what caused the crash. Former Kremlin advisor Sergey Markov blamed the plane’s downing on a misfired Ukrainian UAV strike. Force majeure rationales like an engine breakdown and collision with a flock of migrating birds have also featured prominently.
This “firehouse of falsehoods” propaganda strategy mirrors the Kremlin’s response to the July 2014 Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crash, which was shot down by a Buk surface-to-air-missile in Russian-occupied eastern Ukraine. But with one key difference: Russian disinformation was much more effective then than it is now.
After the MH17 shootdown, Russia used allegations of Ukrainian culpability and vigorous denials to polarise international opinion. Western countries linked the MH-17 disaster to Russia’s illegal invasion of eastern Ukraine and used it as a casus-belli for stiffer sanctions against Russia. The Global South largely remained neutral or amplified the Kremlin’s denials of military assistance to the Donbas separatist militias that perpetrated the attack.
Emboldened by its disinformation success, Russia successfully repeated this playbook after its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The March 2022 Bucha Massacre, which saw Russian forces kill hundreds of unarmed civilians in the outskirts of Kyiv, was a case in point.
By describing the massacre as a staged provocation from Ukraine to secure Nato-class weaponry, Russia planted seeds of doubt amongst anti-Western partners in the Global South. This allowed Russia to avoid international isolation and buttress against the impact of Western sanctions.
This time around, there are signs that Russian disinformation is wearing thin. Azerbaijani MP Rasim Musabekov asked Russia to formally apologise for its role in the latest plane crash and Azerbaijani media outlets are urging Russia to pay reparations to the crash’s victims.
Russia’s refusal to take responsibility for the incident has shaken international confidence in the safety of its airspace and ability to prevent a similar accident from transpiring. Israel’s El-Al airline, FlyDubai and Kazakhstan’s Qazaq Air are amongst the carriers that have either scaled back or indefinitely suspended flight paths to Russia.
As Russia’s standing as a crisis-proof ally was exposed by its inability to defend Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, it can ill afford further damage to its credibility in the post-Soviet space and Global South. While the shutdown of the State Department’s Global Engagement Centre and funding cuts to the BBC World Service complicate matters, the West needs to proactively capitalise on Russian disinformation’s newfound weaknesses.
As the impending closure of the Russia-Ukraine gas transit route undermines Moscow’s grip on occupied Transnistria, Moldova is a critical frontline against Russian disinformation. As is the South Caucasus, where Russia is propping up the Georgian Dream’s autocratic regime and is trying to thwart Armenia’s embrace of Europe, and Africa, where Russia is trying to reassure its security partners that it will not abandon them like it did to Assad.
Cracks have appeared in the edifice of Russia’s disinformation machinery. Now is the time for the West to step up its game.