Gazprom, the gas giant backed by the Kremlin, is unlikely to recover revenues lost as a result of Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine for at least a decade, a study for its bosses reportedly shows.

The company’s exports to Europe are expected to average barely a third of pre-war levels by 2035, equivalent to 50bn to 75bn cubic metres a year, according to the research seen by the Financial Times.

The 151-page document, which it said was commissioned by company management and written late last year, said that a new pipeline to China could help replace lost European volumes but its capacity would be only 50bn cubic metres of gas a year, while prices in Asia are lower than in Europe.

It was reported this week that Russia’s attempts to seal the gas pipeline deal with China have stalled over Beijing’s price and supply demands.

The Gazprom document reportedly said: “The main consequences of sanctions for Gazprom and the energy industry are the contraction of export volumes, which will be restored to their 2020 level no earlier than in 2035.”

Elina Ribakova, a non-resident senior fellow at the Washington-based Peterson Institute for International Economics, told the FT that the research is “very grim”.

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