Israel’s war cabinet has been locked in discussions inside the Kirya, or “The Campus”, over how to respond to the Iran attacks.
Talks are thought to be focused on the timing and scale of Israel’s response. An immediate response was reportedly called off after pressure from Joe Biden. There’s also the question of whether Israel will be forced to act alone, as the US – its staunchest ally – has said it will not support a direct attack on Iran.
Analysts believe Israel will be weighing up whether to respond according to Iran’s intent or impact – after its attack – which largely failed to hit any targets.
“The question now is: What is the right policy? What would deter? What would cause less harm to those who are uninvolved? Who would support [Israel] and who would be part of the action?” Micky Aharonson, former senior director for foreign policy on Israel’s national security council, said.
Here’s a look at Israel’s possible options and their level of risk.
Inside Iran
Israel and Iran have been engaged in a shadow war for decades. Until now, both have always chosen to strike at each other via indirect means, with Israel attacking Iranian assets abroad, and Iran supporting regional militant proxy groups to threaten Israeli targets.
But now, experts say the floodgates have opened after Iran launched a direct attack from its soil against Israel.
“The magnitude [of the Iranian attack] was the surprise; not the fact that they did it,” said Yaakov Amidror, a fellow at the Jewish Institute for National Security of America in Washington.
The “Iranians have opened a new opportunity for us regarding the legitimacy of Israel to destroy targets in Iran, including the nuclear program,” he said. “This is one option: Iran, directly, kinetically, without any hesitation.”
Within Iran itself, Israel has no shortage of potential targets to hit, particularly ones in the military realm linked to its feared Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), responsible for executing on threats against Israel.
Nuclear facilities – HIGH
Israel is believed to have before disrupted Iran’s nuclear ambitions by going after various facilities and scientists, and likely has strong intelligence on Tehran’s nuclear weapons program.
Iran is believed to have increased its total stockpile of highly enriched nuclear fuel for around three atomic weapons.