Yesterday President Trump and his Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, threatened to walk away from peace negotiations and today Vladimir Putin declares a unilateral Easter truce. Putin has been playing hardball so far with Trump but perhaps now recognises time is running out. Assuming this truce is actually maintained, it will be the first time since he launched this war that Putin has suggested a truce, and in fact he rejected a similar proposal from UN Secretary General Antonio Gutteres at Easter 2022.
The reality is that, although Russia has the upper hand, Putin does want this war to end, at least for the time being. He needs time to rebuild the Russian economy and he is fearful of Trump’s reaction if he continues to reject his peace proposals. He knows that Trump’s cajoling of Ukraine and what has appeared to some to be cosying up to Russia, are in fact negotiating tactics.
None of that means that Putin is sincere in making this move and he certainly is not driven by either humanitarian or religious considerations. He is likely attempting to seize the narrative to appease Trump and allow him to declare some kind of negotiating victory. The Kremlin’s emphasis on bracing for Ukrainian “provocations” indicates his intent to seize on or manufacture any such incidents to proclaim that Zelensky is not serious about peace and parry the ball back into Kyiv’s court, so inciting further demands on Ukraine from the White House.
Yesterday President Trump and his Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, threatened to walk away from peace negotiations and today Vladimir Putin declares a unilateral Easter truce. Putin has been playing hardball so far with Trump but perhaps now recognises time is running out. Assuming this truce is actually maintained, it will be the first time since he launched this war that Putin has suggested a truce, and in fact he rejected a similar proposal from UN Secretary General Antonio Gutteres at Easter 2022.
The reality is that, although Russia has the upper hand, Putin does want this war to end, at least for the time being. He needs time to rebuild the Russian economy and he is fearful of Trump’s reaction if he continues to reject his peace proposals. He knows that Trump’s cajoling of Ukraine and what has appeared to some to be cosying up to Russia, are in fact negotiating tactics.
None of that means that Putin is sincere in making this move and he certainly is not driven by either humanitarian or religious considerations. He is likely attempting to seize the narrative to appease Trump and allow him to declare some kind of negotiating victory. The Kremlin’s emphasis on bracing for Ukrainian “provocations” indicates his intent to seize on or manufacture any such incidents to proclaim that Zelensky is not serious about peace and parry the ball back into Kyiv’s court, so inciting further demands on Ukraine from the White House.