President Trump’s boast, some time ago, that if he were President he would stop the war in Ukraine in 24 hours has not aged well. To we military types it always seemed an incredibly arrogant and bumptious claim from somebody who gifted Afghanistan to the Taliban, and who appears to value money above everything else.
H R McMaster, one of Trump’s National Security Advisers during his last term, said after the initial Trump-Putin phone call that Putin is playing Trump – and McMaster knows the players. Putin has not budged an inch and it appears that the only way to peace through Trump’s dealmaking is the total capitulation of Ukraine. Zelensky has offered a complete 30-day ceasefire, but Trump could only get a partial offer from Putin, which involved ceasing attacks on the power infrastructure in both countries.
It is of course Russia, not Ukraine, that needs such a partial ceasefire. The Russian hydrocarbon industry, the engine of the Russian economy, has been hard hit by Kyiv’s drone and missile attacks. Meanwhile Russian attempts to “turn off the lights and the heating” in the bitter Ukrainian winter has failed for a third year running. And in any case, even before Trump’s telephone handset had come to rest on its stand, Russia had attacked a school and power infrastructure.
It seems that nobody has told Trump that Putin doesn’t primarily deal in dollars: he deals in blood. That is not the type of deal Trump is comfortable doing.
Now the Donald’s latest gambit is to take ownership of Ukraine’s power network and most especially its nuclear power stations, as apparent reparations for US support and in the belief that Russia would never attack US assets. The wizard businessman is wrong again, I believe: the only US assets Putin will probably not attack are the American military if they put boots on the ground and jets in the air. We should remember that US and UK fighter jets destroyed hundreds of Iranian missiles fired at Israel without any comeback on those nations from Tehran. What would be the difference if they shot down the Russian missiles taking out schools, hospitals and power stations in Ukraine? This would certainly offer more leverage than trying to bargain with a tyrant who believes he has Trump exactly where he wants him.
Putin thinks he’s winning and only a demonstration of force will be likely to stop him. This really does seem to be a 1939 moment, but with Trump playing Chamberlain rather than Churchill. Unless Trump can find his inner Churchill, and quickly, we and the Europeans are going to have to do some military heavy lifting very soon.
Quite frankly, if Trump has run out of ideas and is only interested in Ukraine’s resources, perhaps he should step back and let those a little closer to the action threaten Putin with a bloody nose. That might bring an end to this war rather more quickly than President Trump has actually proven able to do it in reality.
Hamish de Bretton-Gordon is a former British Army officer
President Trump’s boast, some time ago, that if he were President he would stop the war in Ukraine in 24 hours has not aged well. To we military types it always seemed an incredibly arrogant and bumptious claim from somebody who gifted Afghanistan to the Taliban, and who appears to value money above everything else.
H R McMaster, one of Trump’s National Security Advisers during his last term, said after the initial Trump-Putin phone call that Putin is playing Trump – and McMaster knows the players. Putin has not budged an inch and it appears that the only way to peace through Trump’s dealmaking is the total capitulation of Ukraine. Zelensky has offered a complete 30-day ceasefire, but Trump could only get a partial offer from Putin, which involved ceasing attacks on the power infrastructure in both countries.
It is of course Russia, not Ukraine, that needs such a partial ceasefire. The Russian hydrocarbon industry, the engine of the Russian economy, has been hard hit by Kyiv’s drone and missile attacks. Meanwhile Russian attempts to “turn off the lights and the heating” in the bitter Ukrainian winter has failed for a third year running. And in any case, even before Trump’s telephone handset had come to rest on its stand, Russia had attacked a school and power infrastructure.
It seems that nobody has told Trump that Putin doesn’t primarily deal in dollars: he deals in blood. That is not the type of deal Trump is comfortable doing.
Now the Donald’s latest gambit is to take ownership of Ukraine’s power network and most especially its nuclear power stations, as apparent reparations for US support and in the belief that Russia would never attack US assets. The wizard businessman is wrong again, I believe: the only US assets Putin will probably not attack are the American military if they put boots on the ground and jets in the air. We should remember that US and UK fighter jets destroyed hundreds of Iranian missiles fired at Israel without any comeback on those nations from Tehran. What would be the difference if they shot down the Russian missiles taking out schools, hospitals and power stations in Ukraine? This would certainly offer more leverage than trying to bargain with a tyrant who believes he has Trump exactly where he wants him.
Putin thinks he’s winning and only a demonstration of force will be likely to stop him. This really does seem to be a 1939 moment, but with Trump playing Chamberlain rather than Churchill. Unless Trump can find his inner Churchill, and quickly, we and the Europeans are going to have to do some military heavy lifting very soon.
Quite frankly, if Trump has run out of ideas and is only interested in Ukraine’s resources, perhaps he should step back and let those a little closer to the action threaten Putin with a bloody nose. That might bring an end to this war rather more quickly than President Trump has actually proven able to do it in reality.
Hamish de Bretton-Gordon is a former British Army officer