Not for the first time in his already short second term, president Trump is at risk of once more being outsmarted by Putin, in this year’s ultimate game of diplomatic high stakes poker.
Having campaigned last year in an election in which Ukraine was front and centre – symbolising Washington’s failed foreign policy agenda and a perceived need for refocusing back on “America First” – Trump repeatedly vowed to end the three-year war “on day one”.
One hundred and twenty days later, and with no end to the war realistically in sight, the president held a private two-hour long phone call with Putin, in a further attempt to bring the Russian dictator finally to heel.
This time, instead of threats to further bank-roll Kyiv, Trump appealed to the businessman inside Putin, offering promises of “unlimited potential” of a post-conflict Russian trading relationship with the rest of the world.
Whilst understandable that Trump – himself liking to imagine he is the world’s best deal-maker – attempts to address Putin both as an equal and as a businessman, the Russian president is of course neither.
At best a relatively low-ranking career KGB agent, and now second-rate dictator, whose own lack of internal power nearly spelt the end of his regime when former aide-turned mutineer Yevgeny Prigozhin threatened a putsch on Moscow almost two years ago.
Trump may well have his flaws, but a second rate despot he is not – and to treat Putin as an equal and now as a fellow businessman is to not only do himself a disservice, it also risks emboldening Putin.
In less than four months, Trump’s strategy to dealing with Putin has lurched from sympathetic ally; then to annoyance; to threats of increasing military aid to Ukraine (seen as a near existential threat by the Kremlin); to now promises of unlimited trade with the US.
The right strategy to follow from the start was, of course, severely limiting Russia’s access to the US-led global financial markets. Starmer – to his credit – has led a fresh round of sanctions on both Russian individuals and on Russia’s infamous shadow fleet. Even the Russian-gas loving EU has issued fresh sanctions.
So why is Trump now so keen to appease Putin, and offer potentially billions in trade deals as a reward for a Russian agreement to a ceasefire to a bloody war which they needlessly started?
Only through an ill-thought out strategy, coupled with strategic impatience and diplomatic hubris can Trump think that this latest appeal to Putin will result in any meaningful difference in tone or sentiment from Moscow.
If the Kremlin’s junior representatives to Turkey last week to meet with Ukrainian officials are anything to go by, Putin will continue to drag these discussions out at largely meaningless levels, all the while likely extracting further promises of financial reward from Trump.
The time has finally come for Trump to roll up his sleeves and get tough on Putin. For three years – and arguably since 2014, if not 2008 – Putin has been laughing at the West, at its weak and fragmented leadership in the face of Russia’s continued belligerence and aggression.
Trump is desperate for a deal between Ukraine and Russia. If he thinks he is going to get it by cosying up to Putin over late night calls and showering him with lucrative trade deals, then he is in for a very disappointing year.
Trump needs to step-up, and put-up, or he and the West are going to be taken for a ride by Putin for the next three and a half years – never mind the last 120 days.
Robert Clark is a Fellow at the Yorktown Institute. Prior to this he served in the British military for 16 years.
Not for the first time in his already short second term, president Trump is at risk of once more being outsmarted by Putin, in this year’s ultimate game of diplomatic high stakes poker.
Having campaigned last year in an election in which Ukraine was front and centre – symbolising Washington’s failed foreign policy agenda and a perceived need for refocusing back on “America First” – Trump repeatedly vowed to end the three-year war “on day one”.
One hundred and twenty days later, and with no end to the war realistically in sight, the president held a private two-hour long phone call with Putin, in a further attempt to bring the Russian dictator finally to heel.
This time, instead of threats to further bank-roll Kyiv, Trump appealed to the businessman inside Putin, offering promises of “unlimited potential” of a post-conflict Russian trading relationship with the rest of the world.
Whilst understandable that Trump – himself liking to imagine he is the world’s best deal-maker – attempts to address Putin both as an equal and as a businessman, the Russian president is of course neither.
At best a relatively low-ranking career KGB agent, and now second-rate dictator, whose own lack of internal power nearly spelt the end of his regime when former aide-turned mutineer Yevgeny Prigozhin threatened a putsch on Moscow almost two years ago.
Trump may well have his flaws, but a second rate despot he is not – and to treat Putin as an equal and now as a fellow businessman is to not only do himself a disservice, it also risks emboldening Putin.
In less than four months, Trump’s strategy to dealing with Putin has lurched from sympathetic ally; then to annoyance; to threats of increasing military aid to Ukraine (seen as a near existential threat by the Kremlin); to now promises of unlimited trade with the US.
The right strategy to follow from the start was, of course, severely limiting Russia’s access to the US-led global financial markets. Starmer – to his credit – has led a fresh round of sanctions on both Russian individuals and on Russia’s infamous shadow fleet. Even the Russian-gas loving EU has issued fresh sanctions.
So why is Trump now so keen to appease Putin, and offer potentially billions in trade deals as a reward for a Russian agreement to a ceasefire to a bloody war which they needlessly started?
Only through an ill-thought out strategy, coupled with strategic impatience and diplomatic hubris can Trump think that this latest appeal to Putin will result in any meaningful difference in tone or sentiment from Moscow.
If the Kremlin’s junior representatives to Turkey last week to meet with Ukrainian officials are anything to go by, Putin will continue to drag these discussions out at largely meaningless levels, all the while likely extracting further promises of financial reward from Trump.
The time has finally come for Trump to roll up his sleeves and get tough on Putin. For three years – and arguably since 2014, if not 2008 – Putin has been laughing at the West, at its weak and fragmented leadership in the face of Russia’s continued belligerence and aggression.
Trump is desperate for a deal between Ukraine and Russia. If he thinks he is going to get it by cosying up to Putin over late night calls and showering him with lucrative trade deals, then he is in for a very disappointing year.
Trump needs to step-up, and put-up, or he and the West are going to be taken for a ride by Putin for the next three and a half years – never mind the last 120 days.
Robert Clark is a Fellow at the Yorktown Institute. Prior to this he served in the British military for 16 years.