In the western Black Sea things have been quiet for most of this year. Merchant ships have carried grain from Ukraine down to the Bosphorus and so to the world’s markets largely unmolested. But in the last month, things have changed – in a very dangerous way.
The attack of 9 October on the Ukrainian port of Chornomorsk, hitting a Panama-flagged ship and killing six, is the seventh attack on commercial shipping since 11 September. Prior to this recent flurry, the last strike was on MV Aya in December 2023: she was hit by a mine near the Danube River. I’ll come back to mines later.
The first of the renewed attacks was a missile strike on MV Aya (the same one). The ship was at sea near the Danube. September then saw three more missile attacks, all at sea and all striking ships carrying grain. Damage was sustained each time but thankfully no fatalities. On Sunday a Saint Kitts and Nevis flagged corn carrier was struck in Pivdennyi harbour and on Monday a Palau-flagged vessel in Odesa, killing one person. And now we have the strike on the MV Shui Spirit whilst alongside in Chornomorsk.
So, seven missile attacks. Vladimir Putin is clearly making a renewed effort to cut off Ukrainian grain exports. He wants to do this partly to deny Ukraine foreign exchange, and partly to create a desire around the world for the fighting to end. Ukraine is one of the breadbaskets of the world, and if Putin can cut off its supplies then grain prices will rise everywhere. In rich countries this means more expensive food: not just bread but various other things too as grain is also used as livestock feed and to make oils. In poor countries, higher grain prices can mean hunger or starvation.
In the western Black Sea things have been quiet for most of this year. Merchant ships have carried grain from Ukraine down to the Bosphorus and so to the world’s markets largely unmolested. But in the last month, things have changed – in a very dangerous way.
The attack of 9 October on the Ukrainian port of Chornomorsk, hitting a Panama-flagged ship and killing six, is the seventh attack on commercial shipping since 11 September. Prior to this recent flurry, the last strike was on MV Aya in December 2023: she was hit by a mine near the Danube River. I’ll come back to mines later.
The first of the renewed attacks was a missile strike on MV Aya (the same one). The ship was at sea near the Danube. September then saw three more missile attacks, all at sea and all striking ships carrying grain. Damage was sustained each time but thankfully no fatalities. On Sunday a Saint Kitts and Nevis flagged corn carrier was struck in Pivdennyi harbour and on Monday a Palau-flagged vessel in Odesa, killing one person. And now we have the strike on the MV Shui Spirit whilst alongside in Chornomorsk.
So, seven missile attacks. Vladimir Putin is clearly making a renewed effort to cut off Ukrainian grain exports. He wants to do this partly to deny Ukraine foreign exchange, and partly to create a desire around the world for the fighting to end. Ukraine is one of the breadbaskets of the world, and if Putin can cut off its supplies then grain prices will rise everywhere. In rich countries this means more expensive food: not just bread but various other things too as grain is also used as livestock feed and to make oils. In poor countries, higher grain prices can mean hunger or starvation.