Vladimir Putin dreams of dismantling Nato and discrediting Article 5 of the alliance’s founding treaty: in which members pledge to treat an attack against one ally as an attack against all. While the drone incursion into Poland was a dangerous escalation, it is hardly the first time the Russians have engaged in aggression against a Nato member.
Following its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Russian intelligence has conducted hybrid war operations against the West with extraordinary brazenness.
They have plotted sabotage against European military installations, defence companies, and American military bases and personnel in Europe. The Russians have planted explosives on cargo planes in Germany, believed to be a test run for a plot to sabotage aircraft bound for the United States and Canada. Moscow even sought to kill Armin Papperger, the head of German arms manufacturer Rheinmetall.
The drones appeared to have come directly from Belarus. This provides Putin with some plausible deniability. The unprecedented drone incursion into Poland may mean the Kremlin has grown more emboldened to test Western resolve. Western powers, including the United States, must quickly show Putin they mean business.
So far, though, the Trump administration’s response has been underwhelming. In an ambiguous statement on his social media platform Truth Social, President Trump wrote: “What’s with Russia violating Poland’s airspace with drones? Here we go!” Ambassador Matthew Whittaker, the US envoy to Nato, was a bit more forceful, and declared: “We stand by our Nato Allies in the face of these airspace violations and will defend every inch of Nato territory.” Other allies have issued similar statements.
But strongly worded statements aren’t enough. The Trump administration has powerful cards to play and it should use them. For starters, Washington should declassify any intelligence it has regarding the Russian intentions behind the drone attack, as well as intelligence about other Kremlin plots. And it should work with allies to expel Russian intelligence operatives. Western countries will need to keep an especially close eye on likely Russian efforts to interfere in upcoming parliamentary elections in Moldova later this month.
In addition, the United States, in coordination with allies, should ramp up the economic pressure on Russia. This effort should include so-called secondary sanctions aimed at constricting Russia’s oil export revenue, the backbone of the nation’s economy and federal budget.Trump should provide Ukraine with as many missiles as possible so it can strike back against Russia’s attacks.
Moreover, as Putin targets Nato, Russia’s own the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) is struggling to maintain regional security and legitimacy among members. Armenia froze its participation in the CSTO in 2024 following Moscow’s failure to provide support against Azerbaijan. Western countries should conduct information operations highlighting the CSTO’s ineffectiveness.
Make no mistake: Russia’s shadow war against the West will continue. And if not met with a strong response, Putin’s evil regime may continue to escalate.
Vladimir Putin dreams of dismantling Nato and discrediting Article 5 of the alliance’s founding treaty: in which members pledge to treat an attack against one ally as an attack against all. While the drone incursion into Poland was a dangerous escalation, it is hardly the first time the Russians have engaged in aggression against a Nato member.
Following its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Russian intelligence has conducted hybrid war operations against the West with extraordinary brazenness.
They have plotted sabotage against European military installations, defence companies, and American military bases and personnel in Europe. The Russians have planted explosives on cargo planes in Germany, believed to be a test run for a plot to sabotage aircraft bound for the United States and Canada. Moscow even sought to kill Armin Papperger, the head of German arms manufacturer Rheinmetall.
The drones appeared to have come directly from Belarus. This provides Putin with some plausible deniability. The unprecedented drone incursion into Poland may mean the Kremlin has grown more emboldened to test Western resolve. Western powers, including the United States, must quickly show Putin they mean business.
So far, though, the Trump administration’s response has been underwhelming. In an ambiguous statement on his social media platform Truth Social, President Trump wrote: “What’s with Russia violating Poland’s airspace with drones? Here we go!” Ambassador Matthew Whittaker, the US envoy to Nato, was a bit more forceful, and declared: “We stand by our Nato Allies in the face of these airspace violations and will defend every inch of Nato territory.” Other allies have issued similar statements.
But strongly worded statements aren’t enough. The Trump administration has powerful cards to play and it should use them. For starters, Washington should declassify any intelligence it has regarding the Russian intentions behind the drone attack, as well as intelligence about other Kremlin plots. And it should work with allies to expel Russian intelligence operatives. Western countries will need to keep an especially close eye on likely Russian efforts to interfere in upcoming parliamentary elections in Moldova later this month.
In addition, the United States, in coordination with allies, should ramp up the economic pressure on Russia. This effort should include so-called secondary sanctions aimed at constricting Russia’s oil export revenue, the backbone of the nation’s economy and federal budget.Trump should provide Ukraine with as many missiles as possible so it can strike back against Russia’s attacks.
Moreover, as Putin targets Nato, Russia’s own the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) is struggling to maintain regional security and legitimacy among members. Armenia froze its participation in the CSTO in 2024 following Moscow’s failure to provide support against Azerbaijan. Western countries should conduct information operations highlighting the CSTO’s ineffectiveness.
Make no mistake: Russia’s shadow war against the West will continue. And if not met with a strong response, Putin’s evil regime may continue to escalate.