“Vranyo” is a Russian word for a specific type of lying.
“I once translated it for one of our ministers as ‘epic, bare-faced whopper that we both know cannot possibly be true, but I’m going to tell you anyway’,” says Sir Laurie Bristow, who was the UK’s ambassador to Russia from January 2016 until January 2020.
It is a concept that sits at the heart of Vladimir Putin’s statecraft. And it is about power.
“I had it done to me repeatedly in meetings. It’s not necessarily to persuade you that their version is true. It’s to cast doubt on the truth, by putting around so much litter that you kind of lose the will to live, you just become demoralised,” says Sir Laurie.
In 2014, for example, after the Malaysian Airlines flight MH17 was hit by a Russian-made Buk missile over eastern Ukraine, killing all 298 people on board, the Kremlin fed myths to the press. These included first the claim that the plane was shot down by Ukraine, and then a story that the CIA had filled a plane with bodies and crashed it to discredit the state.
It is this type of vranyo that has fuelled Russia’s isolation on the world stage. Long before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine made Putin an international pariah, Moscow was kept at arm’s length by the West.
Donald Trump seems blissfully unaware of Russia’s track record – or at least doesn’t care. He has launched a mission to reset ties with Moscow and promised “to get that war over” in Ukraine. In doing so, he has shocked the international community by upending Western foreign policy, reopening ties with the Russian president and ruling out offering US security guarantees or Nato membership for Ukraine.
After he met with Sir Keir Starmer, the Prime Minister, on Thursday, Trump told reporters that Putin would “keep his word” if a peace deal is secured. But even a peace deal in Putin’s favour would not get around the fact that Russia has become economically and ideologically addicted to war.
Russia’s economy is creaking under the weight of war, wracked by labour shortages, sanctions, high inflation and record interest rates. But equally, the conflict is its only remaining engine of growth.
After three years of war, nationalist anti-Western propaganda has also become the basis of Putin’s power.
“Putin does not want peace and he’s not going to settle,” says Simon Johnson, MIT professor and former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund (IMF). “He’s enjoying the war. It’s awful. But he doesn’t want to end the war.”
Trump believes forging economic links with Ukraine will be enough to deter future conflict. But a peace deal will not quell the imperialist fire in Putin’s belly.
“Trump is greatly deceived by Mr Putin,” says Johnson. “Trump wants a quick victory. He wants a triumph and a show and Putin is going to play him along. He’s being played.”
War machine
Russia is hooked on military spending. In 2019, Russia spent 5 trillion roubles (£45bn) on defence and security combined, or 28pc of its total government spending. This year, in nominal terms, the bill will be 17 trillion roubles – 41pc of all government spending.