An arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court in the Hague is the thing the Israeli Prime Minister feared most.

Ever since rumours reached Jerusalem in mid-April 2024 that the court was building a war case against Benjamin Netanyahu, he is said to have become “unnaturally afraid and worried”, allowing the matter to dominate his almost every thought.

The issue was an “overriding concern” for Mr Netanyahu and “more urgent than anything else”, said his biographer Anshel Pfeffer, in early May.

Now that nightmare has now become a reality. The decision by Karim Khan, the ICC chief prosecutor, to seek arrest warrants for Mr Netanyahu and Yoav Gallant, his defence minister, will surely be granted by the court in the coming weeks.

A distinguished panel of legal experts appointed by Mr Khan’s office has already unanimously concluded that there are “reasonable grounds” to believe that “war crimes and crimes against humanity” have been committed.

Specifically they believe there is good evidence Mr Netanyahu and Mr Gallant are guilty of murder and extermination, using starvation as a method of war, the denial of humanitarian relief supplies and deliberately targeting civilians.

If the judges agree, arrest warrants will be issued and both men will risk detention if they leave Israel and travel through or to any of the 124 countries that are signatories to the Statute of Rome.

Other fugitives wanted for trial at the Hague include  Vladimir Putin, the Russian president and Joseph Kony, the Ugandan warlord, whose forces are said to be responsible for tens of thousands of child deaths, rapes and abductions.

While the court’s action will be seen by many as a win for justice, it is likely to entrench positions in Israel in the short term. Of particular concern in Israel is the perceived equivalence with the actions of Hamas leaders in Gaza who also now face ICC arrest warrants.

Israel Katz, Israel’s foreign minister, said the move was “scandalous” and tantamount to attacking the victims of Oct 7 while Benny Gantz, the politician most likely to succeed Mr Netanyahu, described it as a “deep distortion of justice and blatant moral bankruptcy”.

Even Yair Lapid, the Left-leaning Israeli opposition leader, condemned the announcement as “a terrible political failure”.

Israel will “not accept a comparison to Hamas,” he said. “It is not possible to issue arrest warrants against Mr Netanyahu, v and Deif. There is no such comparison, we cannot accept it and it is unforgivable.”

In the short term Israel is likely to rally around its leaders. While the country’s key western allies are opposed to the extension of the war into Rafah, they may also feel that the arrest warrant does not help them negotiate with Mr Netanyahu.

Indeed a British government spokesman has already said the search for an a arrest warrant will not help “deliver a sustainable ceasefire”.

Milestone in international criminal law

The US, Israel’s key backer – and not a member of the ICC – has yet to issue any public response.

Once the dust settles, however, the judgment may help deter future war crimes in Israel, the occupied territories and beyond.

As the expert panel who reviewed the prosecutor’s case noted, the ICC move was a “milestone in the history of international criminal law”.

It added: “There is no conflict that should be excluded from the reach of the law; no child’s life valued less than another’s. The law we apply is humanity’s law, not the law of any given side. It must protect all the victims of this conflict; and all civilians in conflicts to come.”