With Donald Trump returning to the U.S. presidency on Jan. 20, Europeans are asking what they can do to keep Ukraine armed if U.S. military aid were to be cut back.
At first glance, it might seem like not much; Europe has abdicated to the U.S. much of its security and industrial base since the end of the Cold War.
When I took a deeper look, however, I discovered that Europe can provide significant useful, albeit non-traditional, military aid even in this short time frame. But Ukraine cannot wait; Europe must act now.
Last May, I wrote about how much military materiel Ukraine needed and how much it would cost, reality-testing an analysis put out by the Estonian Ministry of Defense calling for member states to annually contribute 0.25% of GDP for four or more years.
My analysis calculated that without U.S. participation, an annual contribution of approximately 0.5% GDP by European NATO members would sufficiently support Ukraine’s annual munitions needs for a defensive stalemate. Double that or more would be needed to support military restoration of Ukrainian territory.
Here we are, six months later, and only a few European nations have reached that minimum level of support. Defence production has also not expanded sufficiently to supply Ukraine.
Ukraine crucially needs air defence, artillery, drones, and general equipment. The U.S. still has several billion dollars of support authorised. The best use of this would be to provide Ukraine with materiel European allies do not produce, namely air defence interceptors (PATRIOT, AIM-7, AIM-9. and AIM-120) and long-range strike missiles (ATACMS and GMLRS) with any remaining funds used for artillery.
With Donald Trump returning to the U.S. presidency on Jan. 20, Europeans are asking what they can do to keep Ukraine armed if U.S. military aid were to be cut back.
At first glance, it might seem like not much; Europe has abdicated to the U.S. much of its security and industrial base since the end of the Cold War.
When I took a deeper look, however, I discovered that Europe can provide significant useful, albeit non-traditional, military aid even in this short time frame. But Ukraine cannot wait; Europe must act now.
Last May, I wrote about how much military materiel Ukraine needed and how much it would cost, reality-testing an analysis put out by the Estonian Ministry of Defense calling for member states to annually contribute 0.25% of GDP for four or more years.
My analysis calculated that without U.S. participation, an annual contribution of approximately 0.5% GDP by European NATO members would sufficiently support Ukraine’s annual munitions needs for a defensive stalemate. Double that or more would be needed to support military restoration of Ukrainian territory.
Here we are, six months later, and only a few European nations have reached that minimum level of support. Defence production has also not expanded sufficiently to supply Ukraine.
Ukraine crucially needs air defence, artillery, drones, and general equipment. The U.S. still has several billion dollars of support authorised. The best use of this would be to provide Ukraine with materiel European allies do not produce, namely air defence interceptors (PATRIOT, AIM-7, AIM-9. and AIM-120) and long-range strike missiles (ATACMS and GMLRS) with any remaining funds used for artillery.