India’s Hindu nationalist prime minister Narendra Modi and his allies were heading for victory in the country’s general election on Tuesday but with a reduced parliamentary majority as the opposition surpassed expectations.

Commentators and exit polls had projected an overwhelming victory for Mr Modi, whose campaign prioritised the Hindu majority despite the country’s 200-million-plus Muslim community, deepening concerns for minority rights.

But for the first time in a decade Mr Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will fail to secure an overall majority of its own, according to projected figures, meaning it would need to rely on alliance partners.

The main opposition Congress party was poised to nearly double its parliamentary seats in a remarkable turnaround largely driven by deals to field single candidates against the BJP’s electoral juggernaut.

With three quarters of the votes counted, the BJP’s share of 38.1 per cent was marginally higher than the polling in 2019.

The election commission figures showed the BJP and its allies leading in at least 286 seats out of a total of 543, enough for a parliamentary majority.

But the BJP itself was only leading in 242, well down on the 303 it won five years ago, while the Congress was ahead in 99, up from 52.

Celebrations had already begun at BJP headquarters before the full announcement of results.

But the mood at the Congress headquarters in New Delhi was also one of jubilation.

“BJP has failed to win a big majority on its own,” Congress politician Rajeev Shukla told reporters. “It’s a moral defeat for them.”

Stocks slumped on speculation the reduced majority would hamper the BJP’s ability to push through reforms.

Shares in the main listed unit of Adani Enterprises, owned by key Modi ally Gautam Adani, dropped 25 per cent before recovering.

Mr Modi’s opponents have struggled to counter the BJP’s well-oiled and well-funded campaign, and have been hamstrung by what they say are politically motivated criminal cases aimed at hobbling challengers.

US think tank Freedom House said this year that the BJP had “increasingly used government institutions to target political opponents”.

Arvind Kejriwal, chief minister of Delhi and a key leader in an alliance formed to compete against Mr Modi, returned to jail on Sunday.

Kejriwal, 55, was detained in March 2024 over a long-running corruption probe but was later released and allowed to campaign as long as he returned to custody once voting ended.

“When power becomes dictatorship, then jail becomes a responsibility,” Kejriwal said before surrendering himself, vowing to continue “fighting” from behind bars.

Many of India’s Muslim minority are increasingly uneasy about their community’s place in the constitutionally secular country.

Mr Modi himself has referred to Muslims as “infiltrators”.

The polls were staggering in their size and complexity, with 642 million voters casting their ballots.

“People should know about the strength of Indian democracy,” Rajiv Kumar, chief election commissioner, said on Monday.

Based on the commission’s figure of an electorate of 968 million, turnout was 66.3 per cent, down from 67.4 per cent in 2019.

Analysts have partly blamed the lower turnout on a searing heatwave across northern India, with temperatures above 45C (113F).