Even the doziest and most inward-looking politician in this country – and across Europe – must now realise that Putin wants war, most especially as he seems to think that now is his best chance to drag nations such as Estonia back behind the Iron Curtain. It is not difficult to see why, as President Trump dithers and sends out mixed messages, and Nato has failed to make any appropriate response to the drone attacks on Poland last week.
The latest signal of Putin’s intent is the probe by MiG-31 fighter jets deep into Nato airspace over Estonia. The Italian F-35 jets scrambled to see these invaders off could very easily have shot the Russians down – the F-35 is the most advanced fighter in production today and is a generation ahead of the antique Cold War MiG-31. This would have been a demonstration of Nato military superiority, and it is such firepower which needs to be on show to see Putin off – it’s the only language he understands.
This is not foolish confidence and bravado. The Russian military is almost totally bogged down in the Ukrainian trenches. The latest Zapad exercises in Belarus were quite frankly a joke. The 2022 Zapad demonstrations – just prior to the invasion of Ukraine – showed a much more capable army than the small forces that could be spared from the front this year. The Russians appear to have learnt few of the bitter lessons of Ukraine, and the latest Zapad forces appeared more fit for a Moscow parade than warfare in the 21st century. Russia’s mercenaries and jail-sweepings are no match for Nato professionals. Britain, at least, is testing and adjusting its Army against the lessons we are learning from the Ukrainians in order to fight and win on today’s battlefields.
Everyone including President Trump should be in no doubt that Putin has no interest in peace in Ukraine. His ambition is to take the Baltic States next, and if we keep prevaricating, the unbelievable may just happen. Military strategy is about early moves to get inside the enemy’s thought process. The ancient Chinese general Sun Tzu, author of The Art of War, knew well that the supreme level of victory is to subdue the enemy without fighting – and this is what Putin is doing to Nato now as he violates territory and suffers no response.
I am an armour soldier by my original trade, but the fundamentals of war are the same on land, at sea and in the sky – officers of all our armed services read Sun Tzu. In combined arms land warfare we expect to make probing patrols to test the enemy and get on the front foot: those three MiGs are the Russians doing exactly that. If Russian jets are invading our airspace we must not be passive, the more so as the Russians are unlikely to see, let alone touch, our fifth-generation stealth jets. We should be leaning in just as hard at sea, which I suggest might be easier if most of our Navy was not currently on the far side of the world.
Those European leaders closest to Russia are warning of war and we must listen to them. Their countries were once part of the Soviet Union and they know what it is like to live under the iron hand of Russia’s secret police. We must not repeat the mistakes of 1939: we must understand that attack, or at least the credible threat of it, is historically and quite literally the best form of defence.
We seem to be hoping we are just in a bad dream, and if we don’t upset Putin too much he may just decide enough is enough. That is foolishness. Like Stalin before him, the only thing Putin respects is military strength. We must show some before it is too late.
Even the doziest and most inward-looking politician in this country – and across Europe – must now realise that Putin wants war, most especially as he seems to think that now is his best chance to drag nations such as Estonia back behind the Iron Curtain. It is not difficult to see why, as President Trump dithers and sends out mixed messages, and Nato has failed to make any appropriate response to the drone attacks on Poland last week.
The latest signal of Putin’s intent is the probe by MiG-31 fighter jets deep into Nato airspace over Estonia. The Italian F-35 jets scrambled to see these invaders off could very easily have shot the Russians down – the F-35 is the most advanced fighter in production today and is a generation ahead of the antique Cold War MiG-31. This would have been a demonstration of Nato military superiority, and it is such firepower which needs to be on show to see Putin off – it’s the only language he understands.
This is not foolish confidence and bravado. The Russian military is almost totally bogged down in the Ukrainian trenches. The latest Zapad exercises in Belarus were quite frankly a joke. The 2022 Zapad demonstrations – just prior to the invasion of Ukraine – showed a much more capable army than the small forces that could be spared from the front this year. The Russians appear to have learnt few of the bitter lessons of Ukraine, and the latest Zapad forces appeared more fit for a Moscow parade than warfare in the 21st century. Russia’s mercenaries and jail-sweepings are no match for Nato professionals. Britain, at least, is testing and adjusting its Army against the lessons we are learning from the Ukrainians in order to fight and win on today’s battlefields.
Everyone including President Trump should be in no doubt that Putin has no interest in peace in Ukraine. His ambition is to take the Baltic States next, and if we keep prevaricating, the unbelievable may just happen. Military strategy is about early moves to get inside the enemy’s thought process. The ancient Chinese general Sun Tzu, author of The Art of War, knew well that the supreme level of victory is to subdue the enemy without fighting – and this is what Putin is doing to Nato now as he violates territory and suffers no response.
I am an armour soldier by my original trade, but the fundamentals of war are the same on land, at sea and in the sky – officers of all our armed services read Sun Tzu. In combined arms land warfare we expect to make probing patrols to test the enemy and get on the front foot: those three MiGs are the Russians doing exactly that. If Russian jets are invading our airspace we must not be passive, the more so as the Russians are unlikely to see, let alone touch, our fifth-generation stealth jets. We should be leaning in just as hard at sea, which I suggest might be easier if most of our Navy was not currently on the far side of the world.
Those European leaders closest to Russia are warning of war and we must listen to them. Their countries were once part of the Soviet Union and they know what it is like to live under the iron hand of Russia’s secret police. We must not repeat the mistakes of 1939: we must understand that attack, or at least the credible threat of it, is historically and quite literally the best form of defence.
We seem to be hoping we are just in a bad dream, and if we don’t upset Putin too much he may just decide enough is enough. That is foolishness. Like Stalin before him, the only thing Putin respects is military strength. We must show some before it is too late.