Megaphone “diplomacy”, that feature of the Cold War, has re-surfaced in the spat between Trump and Zelensky. Its winners in this can only be the authoritarian states, particularly Putin and Xi.
I have recently returned from Ukraine and witnessed first hand the devastation. Anyone who has seen what I have will recognise the sheer brutality of the Russian invasion and understand that no one but Putin is responsible for this war. Hospitals have been targeted, as well as schools and blocks of flats. Perhaps the worst sight was Ohmatdyt, a Children’s hospital, hit by a Russian ballistic missile and to a large extent destroyed.
Whilst I deplore President Trump’s simplistic and mistaken assumption that the absence of war is the same as peace, we shouldn’t doubt his determination to bring the Ukraine war to an end. He sees it as a sideshow and he wants to focus on China and Taiwan.
The attacks on Europe by his team show how little regard they have for a continent they believe has been hollowed out from within. JD Vance’s summary that Europe’s surrender to wokeism and welfare dependency, and their failure to invest in defence, contains a great deal of truth. European nations only have themselves to blame: they have ridden on the coattails of the US for too long is an irrefutable fact.
However, this isn’t the most salient issue. The real concern is the risk that incorrect assumptions about the importance of defending Ukraine have been lost in this trans-Atlantic war of words.
Trump’s belief that meeting Putin’s demand for territory and no Ukraine membership of Nato will satisfy him misunderstands the old KGB operative’s real motivation and ambition. Putin is not interested in territory but sovereignty. His desire is to recreate the Soviet Union’s sovereign territory for a greater Russia.
Ukraine’s tenacity and belief in their sovereign right to exist, aided by the incompetent Russian military, has stood in Putin’s way. And his economy could not sustain much more of this conflict: it has seen defence spending rise to levels not seen since the Cold War.
Any belief among the new US administration that Ukraine is a side show is strategically wrong. What happens in Ukraine has a huge bearing on Taiwan. President Xi Jinping watched as the West abandoned Afghanistan in a chaotic retreat and he watches now as the US plans to abandon Ukraine.
That’s why President Xi has aided Moscow throughout the war, helping broker the rapprochement between North Korea and Russia, whilst buying Russian oil and gas.
Before the US election, I asked a senior member of Trump’s team during his first Presidency what his strategy would be over China and Russia. He replied that Trump did not do strategy, he did people. He explained that Trump likes to do deals with people he considers his equals: powerful men who can demonstrate power. This is partly because it reflects well on him and also because such people Trump believes can make fast decisions. That’s perhaps why he has some regard for Putin and Xi.
If Putin is seen to have succeeded, a new world order shaped by totalitarian states will grow. Democracy and the concept of freedom, much vaunted by JD Vance, will shrink whilst totalitarian states will grow in potency. A return to the concept of spheres of influence will ensure the free world will be the loser. Already the influence of China is growing as democracy is in gradual decline.
When Keir Starmer goes to Washington this week, he must calmly set out that Ukraine is part of this strategic threat to us all. That if Ukraine goes down, Taiwan is next. He should remind President Trump of that last great US president Ronald Reagan’s leadership. Reagan together stood firm with Mrs Thatcher and encouraged Europe to show the resolve and unity in defence spending that eventually broke the USSR.
The UK has a critical role to play, to calm the angry voices and explain that as the US’s strongest ally we will lead the way in strengthening our defence capability. Most of all, Starmer must show that this is our generation’s challenge, and that the road to Taiwan runs through Ukraine.
Megaphone “diplomacy”, that feature of the Cold War, has re-surfaced in the spat between Trump and Zelensky. Its winners in this can only be the authoritarian states, particularly Putin and Xi.
I have recently returned from Ukraine and witnessed first hand the devastation. Anyone who has seen what I have will recognise the sheer brutality of the Russian invasion and understand that no one but Putin is responsible for this war. Hospitals have been targeted, as well as schools and blocks of flats. Perhaps the worst sight was Ohmatdyt, a Children’s hospital, hit by a Russian ballistic missile and to a large extent destroyed.
Whilst I deplore President Trump’s simplistic and mistaken assumption that the absence of war is the same as peace, we shouldn’t doubt his determination to bring the Ukraine war to an end. He sees it as a sideshow and he wants to focus on China and Taiwan.
The attacks on Europe by his team show how little regard they have for a continent they believe has been hollowed out from within. JD Vance’s summary that Europe’s surrender to wokeism and welfare dependency, and their failure to invest in defence, contains a great deal of truth. European nations only have themselves to blame: they have ridden on the coattails of the US for too long is an irrefutable fact.
However, this isn’t the most salient issue. The real concern is the risk that incorrect assumptions about the importance of defending Ukraine have been lost in this trans-Atlantic war of words.
Trump’s belief that meeting Putin’s demand for territory and no Ukraine membership of Nato will satisfy him misunderstands the old KGB operative’s real motivation and ambition. Putin is not interested in territory but sovereignty. His desire is to recreate the Soviet Union’s sovereign territory for a greater Russia.
Ukraine’s tenacity and belief in their sovereign right to exist, aided by the incompetent Russian military, has stood in Putin’s way. And his economy could not sustain much more of this conflict: it has seen defence spending rise to levels not seen since the Cold War.
Any belief among the new US administration that Ukraine is a side show is strategically wrong. What happens in Ukraine has a huge bearing on Taiwan. President Xi Jinping watched as the West abandoned Afghanistan in a chaotic retreat and he watches now as the US plans to abandon Ukraine.
That’s why President Xi has aided Moscow throughout the war, helping broker the rapprochement between North Korea and Russia, whilst buying Russian oil and gas.
Before the US election, I asked a senior member of Trump’s team during his first Presidency what his strategy would be over China and Russia. He replied that Trump did not do strategy, he did people. He explained that Trump likes to do deals with people he considers his equals: powerful men who can demonstrate power. This is partly because it reflects well on him and also because such people Trump believes can make fast decisions. That’s perhaps why he has some regard for Putin and Xi.
If Putin is seen to have succeeded, a new world order shaped by totalitarian states will grow. Democracy and the concept of freedom, much vaunted by JD Vance, will shrink whilst totalitarian states will grow in potency. A return to the concept of spheres of influence will ensure the free world will be the loser. Already the influence of China is growing as democracy is in gradual decline.
When Keir Starmer goes to Washington this week, he must calmly set out that Ukraine is part of this strategic threat to us all. That if Ukraine goes down, Taiwan is next. He should remind President Trump of that last great US president Ronald Reagan’s leadership. Reagan together stood firm with Mrs Thatcher and encouraged Europe to show the resolve and unity in defence spending that eventually broke the USSR.
The UK has a critical role to play, to calm the angry voices and explain that as the US’s strongest ally we will lead the way in strengthening our defence capability. Most of all, Starmer must show that this is our generation’s challenge, and that the road to Taiwan runs through Ukraine.