Last week, apparently catching the world by surprise, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) rebels launched a surprise offensive against government-controlled positions in northwestern Syria. Within 72 hours, incredibly, they had expelled Assad’s troops from large swathes of Aleppo. HTS’s triumph restored a rebel presence to Aleppo for the first time in eight years and paved the way for the unfreezing of the Syrian Civil War.
Predictably, Russian fighter jets – supporting their ally, Assad – responded by bombing rebel-held areas of Aleppo and Idlib. Iran-aligned Kataib Hezbollah and Fatemiyoun militias also joined the fight on the dictator’s behalf.
Regardless of what Russia and Iran do next, HTS’s attack has shattered the mirage of authoritarian stability that allows Assad to repress Syrians with impunity. For Putin, Assad’s vulnerability is an especially bitter pill to swallow. Russian jets and Wagner Group mercenaries arrived in Syria in 2015 and helped Assad turn the tide of the civil war. It was brutual, but effective.
The Kremlin successfully advertised its Syrian model of counterinsurgency to African countries like Central African Republic and Mali that faced spiraling threats of transnational terrorism. The decisive success of Russia’s military intervention convinced its historic foe Saudi Arabia to engage with Moscow and immeasurably bolstered Russian great power status in the Middle East.
Last week, apparently catching the world by surprise, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) rebels launched a surprise offensive against government-controlled positions in northwestern Syria. Within 72 hours, incredibly, they had expelled Assad’s troops from large swathes of Aleppo. HTS’s triumph restored a rebel presence to Aleppo for the first time in eight years and paved the way for the unfreezing of the Syrian Civil War.
Predictably, Russian fighter jets – supporting their ally, Assad – responded by bombing rebel-held areas of Aleppo and Idlib. Iran-aligned Kataib Hezbollah and Fatemiyoun militias also joined the fight on the dictator’s behalf.
Regardless of what Russia and Iran do next, HTS’s attack has shattered the mirage of authoritarian stability that allows Assad to repress Syrians with impunity. For Putin, Assad’s vulnerability is an especially bitter pill to swallow. Russian jets and Wagner Group mercenaries arrived in Syria in 2015 and helped Assad turn the tide of the civil war. It was brutual, but effective.
The Kremlin successfully advertised its Syrian model of counterinsurgency to African countries like Central African Republic and Mali that faced spiraling threats of transnational terrorism. The decisive success of Russia’s military intervention convinced its historic foe Saudi Arabia to engage with Moscow and immeasurably bolstered Russian great power status in the Middle East.