Although there was no behind-the-scenes contact between the US administration and Iran between Sunday morning and Friday night, public appearances by US officials had given a strong indication of what the mission would involve.
Tehran recalls its troops
Off-record briefings to US news organisations made clear that the targets would be in Iraq and Syria, not on Iranian soil, and that they would include facilities run by the IRGC.
By Monday, Tehran had already begun to recall its troops stationed in the region, launching evacuations of bases that had been used in attacks against the US. The Iranian regime issued an alarmed statement denying responsibility for the drone strike in Jordan.
Three days later, Lloyd Austin, US defence secretary, gave a Pentagon press briefing describing a “multi-tier response” designed to defend US troops while avoiding war with Iran.
Elsewhere in the same building, administration officials made a decision to hold off on strikes that night because of poor visibility that could endanger civilians near the targets.
The clearly telegraphed warnings to Iran appear to have allowed the IRGC to minimise its losses, and will likely have resulted in the removal of weapons from facilities in Iraq and Syria that Tehran expected to be targeted in the retaliatory strikes.
Although the White House has not discussed its strategy publicly, US officials have been clear that Mr Biden is trying to avoid a full-scale conflict with Iran. Killing a large number of IRGC troops risked inflaming tensions further and worsening the reprisals against US forces.
The strikes nonetheless provoked an immediate response from the Islamic militias.
Within hours, as the B-1B bombers embarked on their 6,000-mile return to Texas, the IRI claimed it had launched a drone strike on the al-Harir air base hosting US forces in northern Iraq, although some security officials suggested the attacks had not been successful.
‘Strategic mistake by US’
On Saturday morning, an Iranian foreign ministry spokesman said the air strikes were “violations of the sovereignty and territorial integrity” of Syria and Iraq and represent “another adventurous and strategic mistake by the United States that will result only in increased tension and instability in the region”.
Iran has also urged the UN Security Council to intervene, to prevent “illegal and unilateral US attacks”, and summoned its US envoy in Tehran, while state television networks described US forces as “terrorists”.
“The root cause of tensions and crises in the Middle East is Israel’s occupation and genocide of Palestinians with America’s unlimited support,” the spokesman said.