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The Telegraph
The Telegraph
4 Nov 2024
James Crisp


How Europe is preparing for ‘cold shower’ of second Trump presidency

At the European Commission headquarters, the “Trump task force” is hard at work drawing up contingency plans for a US-EU trade war and Washington cancelling aid for Ukraine.

Officially, they are preparing for all scenarios, including a Kamala Harris victory.

But, after crisis meetings with ambassadors from the 27 member states, no one in Brussels is losing sleep over a Democrat victory.

“If it is Harris, we don’t think a lot will change. If it is Donald Trump, then we will get a cold shower,” an EU official told the Telegraph.

“A Trump victory is going to be a very brutal shock for Europe,” said Anthony Gardner, who was Barack Obama’s ambassador to the US from 2014 to 2017.

Heather Grabbe, a senior fellow at the Bruegel think tank in Brussels, said: “Nobody is ready for Trump because he’s so unpredictable.”

Lord Darroch, the UK ambassador to the US from 2016 to 2019, when Trump first entered the White House, said: “He really doesn’t like the EU; he once said publicly that ‘the EU is worse than China’.

“There is a real risk, I think, that if Trump is elected and introduces the tariffs he is promising, we’ll see counter-tariffs from the EU and China, escalation, and a trade war,” Lord Darroch, who is also a former British ambassador to the EU, added.