Last night, Poland reported a significant violation of its airspace by Russian drones during a large-scale Russian attack on Ukraine. Exact numbers are yet to be determined but Poland is saying at least 19 objects were tracked and those that were deemed to be a threat – perhaps three or four – were neutralised. President Zelensky stated that “at least eight were aimed towards Poland” before adding a little perspective by saying that 415 drones and 40 missiles were fired at Ukraine.
Polish and other Nato fighter jets, including Dutch F-35s, were scrambled to intercept, resulting in several drones being shot down. One report indicates that a drone struck a house in Poland. The incident led to temporary closures of several Polish airports, including Warsaw’s Chopin and Modlin, as well as Lublin and Rzeszów-Jasionka, to ensure safety during the military response.
Diplomatically and politically, for now, we are in the “fist shaking” phase where the alliance’s solidarity is proclaimed, extra air sorties are ordered and everyone works out what to do next. The great risk is that, basically, nothing further will be done. We have been here before – fear of escalation leading to inaction. Indeed it’s what led to this war in the first place. How many times does Putin have to show that he doesn’t care about words or sanctions, and that the only language he understands is bombs and bullets? How many times do we need to watch exceptional behaviour become normal through repetition followed by inaction?
What’s needed is a strong response, but not one that could be deemed an escalation. In fact what would be best is if it was actually de-escalatory. Putin has violated Nato airspace with drones clearly aimed into Poland, regardless of Belarussian suggestions that they were jammed.
Nato attacking into Russian airspace would be no more than a tit-for-tat response, and would make sense given that the drones aimed at Poland appear to have come from Russia, but it would not be de-escalatory. On the other hand, action against targets outside Russia would be less aggressive than what Russia has done – and could also be very damaging for Putin.
Last night, Poland reported a significant violation of its airspace by Russian drones during a large-scale Russian attack on Ukraine. Exact numbers are yet to be determined but Poland is saying at least 19 objects were tracked and those that were deemed to be a threat – perhaps three or four – were neutralised. President Zelensky stated that “at least eight were aimed towards Poland” before adding a little perspective by saying that 415 drones and 40 missiles were fired at Ukraine.
Polish and other Nato fighter jets, including Dutch F-35s, were scrambled to intercept, resulting in several drones being shot down. One report indicates that a drone struck a house in Poland. The incident led to temporary closures of several Polish airports, including Warsaw’s Chopin and Modlin, as well as Lublin and Rzeszów-Jasionka, to ensure safety during the military response.
Diplomatically and politically, for now, we are in the “fist shaking” phase where the alliance’s solidarity is proclaimed, extra air sorties are ordered and everyone works out what to do next. The great risk is that, basically, nothing further will be done. We have been here before – fear of escalation leading to inaction. Indeed it’s what led to this war in the first place. How many times does Putin have to show that he doesn’t care about words or sanctions, and that the only language he understands is bombs and bullets? How many times do we need to watch exceptional behaviour become normal through repetition followed by inaction?
What’s needed is a strong response, but not one that could be deemed an escalation. In fact what would be best is if it was actually de-escalatory. Putin has violated Nato airspace with drones clearly aimed into Poland, regardless of Belarussian suggestions that they were jammed.
Nato attacking into Russian airspace would be no more than a tit-for-tat response, and would make sense given that the drones aimed at Poland appear to have come from Russia, but it would not be de-escalatory. On the other hand, action against targets outside Russia would be less aggressive than what Russia has done – and could also be very damaging for Putin.