On Saturday, the Trump administration reopened the US campaign against the Iran-backed Houthis in the Red Sea. Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth said on Sunday, “Freedom of navigation is basic, it’s a core national interest. The minute the Houthis say, ‘We’ll stop shooting at your ships, we’ll stop shooting at your drones,’ this campaign will end. But until then, it will be unrelenting.”
In October 2024, his predecessor said something similar: “We will continue to make clear to the Houthis that there will be consequences for their illegal and reckless attacks.”
The renewed counter strikes are not a new strategy. In fact, various strike and bombing campaigns have been carried out against the Houthis since 2015, often with US intelligence backing, to no avail. RAF fighter jets based in Cyprus teamed up with US strike forces last year, also to no avail. Over 50 per cent of shipping has been rerouting round the Cape of Good Hope since December 2023 – over 90 per cent for the more valuable cargoes. In all the twists and turns since – attacks, formation of defensive alliances and tough talk – that has remained unchanged.
So why is the US back on this tack and, more importantly, will it work?
The timing is certainly odd. The Houthis, who see their anti-shipping campaign as entirely tied to the Israel-Hamas war, complied with the fragile ceasefire in Gaza between January and March 2025. March saw attacks resuming but at a reduced rate. Then the Houthis fired a wave of 18 missiles at the US warships on station off Yemen, and that is no surprise. While US and other warships so far have a 100 percent kill rate on weapons heading for them, this is a numbers game and the longer you stay inside the missile envelope, the more the chances of getting hit go up.
On Saturday, the Trump administration reopened the US campaign against the Iran-backed Houthis in the Red Sea. Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth said on Sunday, “Freedom of navigation is basic, it’s a core national interest. The minute the Houthis say, ‘We’ll stop shooting at your ships, we’ll stop shooting at your drones,’ this campaign will end. But until then, it will be unrelenting.”
In October 2024, his predecessor said something similar: “We will continue to make clear to the Houthis that there will be consequences for their illegal and reckless attacks.”
The renewed counter strikes are not a new strategy. In fact, various strike and bombing campaigns have been carried out against the Houthis since 2015, often with US intelligence backing, to no avail. RAF fighter jets based in Cyprus teamed up with US strike forces last year, also to no avail. Over 50 per cent of shipping has been rerouting round the Cape of Good Hope since December 2023 – over 90 per cent for the more valuable cargoes. In all the twists and turns since – attacks, formation of defensive alliances and tough talk – that has remained unchanged.
So why is the US back on this tack and, more importantly, will it work?
The timing is certainly odd. The Houthis, who see their anti-shipping campaign as entirely tied to the Israel-Hamas war, complied with the fragile ceasefire in Gaza between January and March 2025. March saw attacks resuming but at a reduced rate. Then the Houthis fired a wave of 18 missiles at the US warships on station off Yemen, and that is no surprise. While US and other warships so far have a 100 percent kill rate on weapons heading for them, this is a numbers game and the longer you stay inside the missile envelope, the more the chances of getting hit go up.