Olaf Scholz’s embattled coalition could be heading for collapse and a snap election, German media reported, amid speculation that ministers will not be able to agree on a 2025 budget.
Two German media outlets, Watson.de and DeutschlandFunk, have suggested March 9 as the date of a highly unusual snap election, which could be called if the government falls apart in the coming weeks.
Tensions within the chancellor’s three-way “traffic light” coalition have simmered for months over mass migration, personality clashes, budget issues and poor election results.
‘Politicians getting more and more nervous’
A source in the centre-Right Christan Democrats (CDU) party, which is projected to defeat Mr Scholz in the next election, said there was growing speculation in the Bundestag that early elections might be called soon.
“The politicians are getting more and more nervous,” they told The Telegraph.
The most immediate challenge faced by Mr Scholz’s centre-Left Social Democrats (SPD), the Greens and the Free Democratic Party (FDP) is agreeing on a 2025 budget before the deadline of Nov 15.
Mr Scholz’s coalition faced a similar dilemma ahead of last year’s budget, but then managed to cobble together an agreement, defying speculation of a government collapse.
The most likely scenario is that German ministers will manage to agree on a 2025 budget despite a looming shortfall of 13.5 billion euros (£11 billion), Reuters news agency reported, citing German officials and experts.
But tensions are said to be rising in the coalition, notably between Mr Scholz’s SPD party and the economically liberal FDP, which is represented in the cabinet by finance minister Christian Lindner.
“The mood is not good at all, there is no trust anymore,” one German official told Reuters.
Germany’s stagnating economy and the announcement that Volkswagen is considering unprecedented domestic factory closures have also piled pressure on the coalition.
Earlier this month, Mr Lindner told the German news outlet Table Briefings that his coalition faced an “autumn of decisions” and hinted that the current government is undermining the key German principle of stability.
“Stability for Germany is of paramount importance. But at some point, a government itself can be part of the problem,” he said.
In a further sign of internal strife, German tabloid Bild reported on Wednesday that Mr Scholz has not invited Mr Lindner to a high-level meeting with industry leaders on Nov 15.
‘No leader at such a time is risky’
The FDP is currently polling at below the 5 per cent threshold needed to enter federal parliament.
Some senior figures in the party believe their chances of winning seats would be boosted outside the coalition, Reuters reported this week.
Another key factor in whether the government survives is next week’s US election, as a Donald Trump victory would galvanise the coalition into holding firm to ensure stability in Europe.
“The world’s third largest economy [Germany] could not risk being without leadership at such a time,” a German government official told Reuters. “Everyone knows that, even Lindner.”
Freidrich Merz, the CDU leader, has already called for early elections, as polls consistently show his party coming in first place with around 30 per cent of the vote.
Germany’s next election is due to be held in September 2025, but it can be called earlier with the agreement of the president of Germany and other state bodies which enforce the German constitution.