Just a week ago Russia was a pariah state, ostracised (by the West at least) and subject to strict sanctions on its economy and the movements of its leaders. Now, courtesy of Donald Trump, it is back at the table of big power politics, just where Vladimir Putin has always wanted to sit as an entitlement, not a favour.
The implications of what has happened in the space of a few days can hardly be overstated. It has plunged Europe into a crisis that it should have foreseen and prepared for, but didn’t. Leaders looked at Trump’s first presidency and calculated that all the talk about leaving Nato and letting Europe sort out its own problems was bluster.
When he said during his re-election campaign that he would “end the war on day one” they assumed he was bluffing. When he hinted that the US would no longer guarantee Europe’s security despite the mutual defence agreement, few believed him. It turns out that his second term will see those threats fulfilled – or so it would appear.
Talks aimed at ending the war in Ukraine largely on terms favourable to Moscow are expected to start in Saudi Arabia this week, bypassing Ukraine and Europe. Washington’s démarche has thrown the Continent into a flat spin, with Emmanuel Macron calling EU leaders to an emergency summit in Paris. Sir Keir Starmer will also attend: the UK may be outside the bloc but its military presence remains critical to the Continent’s defence even if its conventional strength has diminished markedly over the decades.
As a nuclear power alongside France the rest of Europe will need the UK’s deterrent if the US withdraws its cover (though Trident is not entirely independent).
It is still unclear precisely what Mr Trump intends to happen in Ukraine, but the signs are not good for Kyiv. The likelihood is that in exchange for a ceasefire Russia will hold the territory it has occupied, including Crimea annexed in 2014. No wonder one usually sober Russian newspaper hailed the 90-minute phone call between the two presidents as “A Day of Triumph for Putin”.
Three years after his ill-fated invasion to topple Ukraine within days exposed Russia’s military weakness, not its strength, the Kremlin autocrat has been handed a lifeline he will grab for all he is worth. How the rest of Europe now responds to this extraordinary turnround is its biggest test since the end of the Cold War.
Just a week ago Russia was a pariah state, ostracised (by the West at least) and subject to strict sanctions on its economy and the movements of its leaders. Now, courtesy of Donald Trump, it is back at the table of big power politics, just where Vladimir Putin has always wanted to sit as an entitlement, not a favour.
The implications of what has happened in the space of a few days can hardly be overstated. It has plunged Europe into a crisis that it should have foreseen and prepared for, but didn’t. Leaders looked at Trump’s first presidency and calculated that all the talk about leaving Nato and letting Europe sort out its own problems was bluster.
When he said during his re-election campaign that he would “end the war on day one” they assumed he was bluffing. When he hinted that the US would no longer guarantee Europe’s security despite the mutual defence agreement, few believed him. It turns out that his second term will see those threats fulfilled – or so it would appear.
Talks aimed at ending the war in Ukraine largely on terms favourable to Moscow are expected to start in Saudi Arabia this week, bypassing Ukraine and Europe. Washington’s démarche has thrown the Continent into a flat spin, with Emmanuel Macron calling EU leaders to an emergency summit in Paris. Sir Keir Starmer will also attend: the UK may be outside the bloc but its military presence remains critical to the Continent’s defence even if its conventional strength has diminished markedly over the decades.
As a nuclear power alongside France the rest of Europe will need the UK’s deterrent if the US withdraws its cover (though Trident is not entirely independent).
It is still unclear precisely what Mr Trump intends to happen in Ukraine, but the signs are not good for Kyiv. The likelihood is that in exchange for a ceasefire Russia will hold the territory it has occupied, including Crimea annexed in 2014. No wonder one usually sober Russian newspaper hailed the 90-minute phone call between the two presidents as “A Day of Triumph for Putin”.
Three years after his ill-fated invasion to topple Ukraine within days exposed Russia’s military weakness, not its strength, the Kremlin autocrat has been handed a lifeline he will grab for all he is worth. How the rest of Europe now responds to this extraordinary turnround is its biggest test since the end of the Cold War.