On Sunday, Tesla CEO Elon Musk took his pressure campaign against Ukraine to new heights. In a stinging riposte, Musk warned of the consequences of shuttering the 42,000 Starlink terminals that provide vital communications support for the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Musk boasted that his Starlink system was the “backbone of the Ukrainian army” and claimed Ukraine’s “entire frontline would collapse if I turned it off.”
Musk’s comments sparked a conflict with Polish Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski. Sikorski emphasised that Musk’s Starlink provisions were not an act of charity, as the Polish Digitalisation Ministry paid $50 million per year for them. Sikorski also raised the prospect of finding alternative suppliers if Space X proved unreliable. Secretary of State Marco Rubio rushed to Musk’s defence and urged Sikorski to be grateful as “Russians would be on the border with Poland” without Starlink.
Concerns about Musk’s potential to limit or shutter Ukraine’s access to Starlink are not new. In 2022, Musk denied Ukraine access to Starlink for sea drone attacks on Russia’s Black Sea Fleet and sought counsel from the Russian Ambassador to the United States about escalation risks. In September 2023, Ukrainian officials once again urged Musk to activate Starlink terminals over Crimea. Musk rejected this request as he wanted to avoid complicity in a “major act of war” and Kyiv castigated Musk for enabling Russian Kalibr missile strikes on Ukrainian cities.
While Musk established Starlink terminals over Ukraine for free after Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022, the Pentagon ultimately signed a $40 million contract with Space X to prevent Musk from turning them off on financial grounds. Poland’s financing of half of Ukraine’s Starlink terminals adds another layer of protection against this risk. Nevertheless, Musk’s rhetoric still raises alarm in Europe about a sudden cancellation and even his statement yesterday “To be extremely clear, no matter how much I disagree with the Ukraine policy, Starlink will never turn off its terminals” will not eviscerate those concerns.
If Ukraine were to lose Starlink access, the consequences would be grave. Due to Russia’s relentless pounding of Ukraine’s electrical air defence infrastructure, Starlink terminals have helped Ukraine’s frontline towns stay connected to the outside world and allowed medical facilities to perform emergency surgeries. Even though Russia’s recent gains along the Donetsk frontlines can be partially attributed to the acquisition of black market Starlink terminals, they remain a potent technological advantage for outnumbered and outgunned Ukrainian forces.
The vitality of this communications infrastructure for Ukrainian civilians and military operations means that Ukraine needs to have a Plan B if Musk changes his mind about supplying Starlink. A back-up plan is starting to crystallise. Ukrainian forces have been able to maintain regular communications in Kursk, even though Starlink coverage is largely non-existent. This success reflects the innovative capacity of Ukraine’s General Staff and Armed Forces.
Ukraine’s European partners are also coming to the rescue. The EU is currently holding discussions with Luxembourg’s SES, Spain’s Hidesat, Britain’s Viasat and French/British operator Eutelstat/OneWeb to see if these companies could provide satellite access to Ukraine.
French Member of the European Parliament Christophe Grudler is leading the charge to make Govsatcom, a pooled network of EU satellites, operational this year. Ukrainian officials have already expressed interest in this system and its rapid roll-out could give Ukraine an immediate alternative to Starlink. IRIS, a new EU satellite constellation that will be released in the 2030s, will allow Ukraine to make a complete long-term divestment from Starlink if it so chooses.
Musk’s rhetoric is a further reminder of the US’s potential unreliability as an arms supplier to Europe. If Europe chooses to rely on US-made technology for its impending military buildup, it needs US maintenance support and spare parts to keep these weapons systems operational.
The US’s abrupt cutoff of intelligence support to Ukraine has severely weakened the efficacy of its F-16 jammers. It is also unclear whether AN/ALQ-131 electronic countermeasures pods, which F-16s use to detect threats from enemy aircraft, will be maintained by US contractors. The uncertainties surrounding Ukraine’s F-16s underscores the need for European technological self-sufficiency in the defence sphere and the perils of overreliance on US equipment.
President Donald Trump’s calls for increased European defence spending are linked to his desire to ignite a production and export boom for the US military-industrial complex. The erraticism that his administration has displayed could unintentionally complicate this plan.
On Sunday, Tesla CEO Elon Musk took his pressure campaign against Ukraine to new heights. In a stinging riposte, Musk warned of the consequences of shuttering the 42,000 Starlink terminals that provide vital communications support for the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Musk boasted that his Starlink system was the “backbone of the Ukrainian army” and claimed Ukraine’s “entire frontline would collapse if I turned it off.”
Musk’s comments sparked a conflict with Polish Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski. Sikorski emphasised that Musk’s Starlink provisions were not an act of charity, as the Polish Digitalisation Ministry paid $50 million per year for them. Sikorski also raised the prospect of finding alternative suppliers if Space X proved unreliable. Secretary of State Marco Rubio rushed to Musk’s defence and urged Sikorski to be grateful as “Russians would be on the border with Poland” without Starlink.
Concerns about Musk’s potential to limit or shutter Ukraine’s access to Starlink are not new. In 2022, Musk denied Ukraine access to Starlink for sea drone attacks on Russia’s Black Sea Fleet and sought counsel from the Russian Ambassador to the United States about escalation risks. In September 2023, Ukrainian officials once again urged Musk to activate Starlink terminals over Crimea. Musk rejected this request as he wanted to avoid complicity in a “major act of war” and Kyiv castigated Musk for enabling Russian Kalibr missile strikes on Ukrainian cities.
While Musk established Starlink terminals over Ukraine for free after Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022, the Pentagon ultimately signed a $40 million contract with Space X to prevent Musk from turning them off on financial grounds. Poland’s financing of half of Ukraine’s Starlink terminals adds another layer of protection against this risk. Nevertheless, Musk’s rhetoric still raises alarm in Europe about a sudden cancellation and even his statement yesterday “To be extremely clear, no matter how much I disagree with the Ukraine policy, Starlink will never turn off its terminals” will not eviscerate those concerns.
If Ukraine were to lose Starlink access, the consequences would be grave. Due to Russia’s relentless pounding of Ukraine’s electrical air defence infrastructure, Starlink terminals have helped Ukraine’s frontline towns stay connected to the outside world and allowed medical facilities to perform emergency surgeries. Even though Russia’s recent gains along the Donetsk frontlines can be partially attributed to the acquisition of black market Starlink terminals, they remain a potent technological advantage for outnumbered and outgunned Ukrainian forces.
The vitality of this communications infrastructure for Ukrainian civilians and military operations means that Ukraine needs to have a Plan B if Musk changes his mind about supplying Starlink. A back-up plan is starting to crystallise. Ukrainian forces have been able to maintain regular communications in Kursk, even though Starlink coverage is largely non-existent. This success reflects the innovative capacity of Ukraine’s General Staff and Armed Forces.
Ukraine’s European partners are also coming to the rescue. The EU is currently holding discussions with Luxembourg’s SES, Spain’s Hidesat, Britain’s Viasat and French/British operator Eutelstat/OneWeb to see if these companies could provide satellite access to Ukraine.
French Member of the European Parliament Christophe Grudler is leading the charge to make Govsatcom, a pooled network of EU satellites, operational this year. Ukrainian officials have already expressed interest in this system and its rapid roll-out could give Ukraine an immediate alternative to Starlink. IRIS, a new EU satellite constellation that will be released in the 2030s, will allow Ukraine to make a complete long-term divestment from Starlink if it so chooses.
Musk’s rhetoric is a further reminder of the US’s potential unreliability as an arms supplier to Europe. If Europe chooses to rely on US-made technology for its impending military buildup, it needs US maintenance support and spare parts to keep these weapons systems operational.
The US’s abrupt cutoff of intelligence support to Ukraine has severely weakened the efficacy of its F-16 jammers. It is also unclear whether AN/ALQ-131 electronic countermeasures pods, which F-16s use to detect threats from enemy aircraft, will be maintained by US contractors. The uncertainties surrounding Ukraine’s F-16s underscores the need for European technological self-sufficiency in the defence sphere and the perils of overreliance on US equipment.
President Donald Trump’s calls for increased European defence spending are linked to his desire to ignite a production and export boom for the US military-industrial complex. The erraticism that his administration has displayed could unintentionally complicate this plan.