When I was in Belarus during the 2020 protests against President Lukashenko, I initially got the impression that this is what the Soviet Union would have looked like had it actually worked. The shops, largely stocked with Belarussian made goods, are full. And delicious restaurants and trendy bars and clubs can all be found quite easily. 

Crime is very low, as is unemployment, and homelessness is extremely rare. The public transport system is cheap and effective and, by all accounts, the health system is not too bad, either. 

Belarus’s economy remains largely unreformed from its communist days, with state-owned enterprises dominating the market.

So where has this relative prosperity come from?

Well, most observers chiefly put this down to the curious relationship Lukashenko has had with Russia and Vladimir Putin, which has been termed “oil for kisses”. 

The basic principle was this: Lukashenko promises political favours to the Kremlin and to Russian businesses, and in return he received gas and oil at sub market prices. Belarus is then able to sell the refined products abroad at such a mark-up that it could cross-subsidise the rest of the economy and effectively keep the stability of a neo-Soviet social structure in place. 

This arrangement has been a bit of a love-hate one. Throughout Lukashenko’s near 30-year reign, Russia has repeatedly attempted to remove or at least reduce subsidies to Belarus. Before the anti-government protests of 2020 and the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, when Russia tried this, Lukashenko would usually threaten to make overtures to the West. 

But the events of 2020 and the Russia-Ukraine war mean things have changed. With sanctions and the war putting Lukashenko firmly into Russia’s orbit, he no longer has the leverage of threatening to align himself more closely with the West. 

In this episode of Defence in Depth, Daniel Hardaker, a reporter on the ground during the 2020 protests against Lukashenko, explains Putin’s ‘closest ally’ - Belarus.

Watch Daniel’s video analysis above. Find more episodes of Defence in Depth on The Telegraph’s YouTube channel.