The exhausted Ukrainian population is rippling with expectation, and in some corners barely contained fury at the prospect of an unjust peace deal foisted on the country. Push too far in forcing Ukraine to give up land without offering the right guarantees, and Trump and the European leaders who visited Washington DC on Monday might unintentionally open a Pandora’s box of angry nationalism that could lead the country into a dark future.
Since independence in 1991, Ukraine has – unlike its neighbour to the East – been bursting with political energy and debate. Its growing commitment to democracy has ensured regular, legal transfers of power. As Viktor Yanukovych discovered in 2013, Ukrainians of all stripes refuse to accept dictators. Despite the presence of some ultranationalist parties and groups in the country, they have never come close to holding power – and garnered a mere 2 per cent of the vote at the last parliamentary election in 2019.
Even democratically healthy countries haunted by the memory of humiliating defeat in war can turn to the extremes. Nationalists make hay from stab-in-the-back myths, instrumentalising feelings of betrayal and humiliation to suggest that their country is surrounded by enemies and too easily abandoned by purported allies. Soldiers return home with the sense that their sacrifices were made in vain. With little economic, psychological, or social support, they often have no sense of a brighter future.
In 2022, Ukrainians temporarily put disagreements about the future on hold. A vast tranche of society spanning liberal democrats, pro-Europeans, soft nationalists, and the extreme Right united in support for the war effort, Volodymyr Zelensky, and the wider Western political ideal. Now, though, factionalism and in-fighting are rearing their heads. President Zelensky’s recent anti-corruption farrago brought Ukrainians onto the streets in protest. Frustration is growing at the presidential office’s hold over the media and political processes. Some even claim the president has “lost the trust of the people.” This is not a strong position from which to sell a deal that asks Ukrainians to give up vast tracts of land to the invader, abandoning the local populations to Russia’s violent occupation regime, in return for weak guarantees over the future.
However, what unites the Ukrainian population today is the idea that, no matter what commitments Putin might make in the coming weeks, he and his country will not cease their attacks on Ukraine. Russia, they believe, has been assaulting its former imperial subject with an arsenal of military, political, and cultural tools since 1991, and Vladimir Putin – who seems to see Ukraine as a non-existent country that rightfully belongs to Moscow – has no intention of relinquishing his ambition to subjugate the country now. They expect that war will come again.
Unless the political reality in Russia changes, Ukrainians – especially tens of thousands of demobbed soldiers returning to an economically and demographically ravaged peacetime country – will not be willing to give up the fight. It is in this cocktail of disappointment, revanchisme, and hopelessness that ultranationalists might find the space to push their way to power. Backed by demobbed soldiers accustomed to the violence of combat, they would not hesitate to use violence to seize power, promising to return what Ukraine has lost, empower embittered veterans, and ensure that neither Russia nor the West will be in a position to leave the country adrift in the future.
An insular, disillusioned Ukraine would be an unreliable economic and security partner for Europe. It would be a poor home for the many citizens who refuse to embrace the political extremes. Worse, there is every possibility that Vladimir Putin may, given his decades-long interference in Ukrainian politics, even fuel ultranationalism as a way to justify further aggression against Kyiv.
For now, Ukraine’s democracy remains resilient and nationalist parties remain far from power. Western leaders looking to push a peace deal must make every effort to avoid this disaster. First, security guarantees must make it clear to Vladimir Putin that, should he attempt to attack Ukraine again, the West will use every military and economic tool available to repel the invasion and destroy the Russian regime. Second – a far more achievable aim – Western leaders must commit to supporting Ukrainian economic and democratic resilience as the country recovers from war. Ignore these realities in the rush to make peace and the worst outcome for Ukraine may yet transpire.
The exhausted Ukrainian population is rippling with expectation, and in some corners barely contained fury at the prospect of an unjust peace deal foisted on the country. Push too far in forcing Ukraine to give up land without offering the right guarantees, and Trump and the European leaders who visited Washington DC on Monday might unintentionally open a Pandora’s box of angry nationalism that could lead the country into a dark future.
Since independence in 1991, Ukraine has – unlike its neighbour to the East – been bursting with political energy and debate. Its growing commitment to democracy has ensured regular, legal transfers of power. As Viktor Yanukovych discovered in 2013, Ukrainians of all stripes refuse to accept dictators. Despite the presence of some ultranationalist parties and groups in the country, they have never come close to holding power – and garnered a mere 2 per cent of the vote at the last parliamentary election in 2019.
Even democratically healthy countries haunted by the memory of humiliating defeat in war can turn to the extremes. Nationalists make hay from stab-in-the-back myths, instrumentalising feelings of betrayal and humiliation to suggest that their country is surrounded by enemies and too easily abandoned by purported allies. Soldiers return home with the sense that their sacrifices were made in vain. With little economic, psychological, or social support, they often have no sense of a brighter future.
In 2022, Ukrainians temporarily put disagreements about the future on hold. A vast tranche of society spanning liberal democrats, pro-Europeans, soft nationalists, and the extreme Right united in support for the war effort, Volodymyr Zelensky, and the wider Western political ideal. Now, though, factionalism and in-fighting are rearing their heads. President Zelensky’s recent anti-corruption farrago brought Ukrainians onto the streets in protest. Frustration is growing at the presidential office’s hold over the media and political processes. Some even claim the president has “lost the trust of the people.” This is not a strong position from which to sell a deal that asks Ukrainians to give up vast tracts of land to the invader, abandoning the local populations to Russia’s violent occupation regime, in return for weak guarantees over the future.
However, what unites the Ukrainian population today is the idea that, no matter what commitments Putin might make in the coming weeks, he and his country will not cease their attacks on Ukraine. Russia, they believe, has been assaulting its former imperial subject with an arsenal of military, political, and cultural tools since 1991, and Vladimir Putin – who seems to see Ukraine as a non-existent country that rightfully belongs to Moscow – has no intention of relinquishing his ambition to subjugate the country now. They expect that war will come again.
Unless the political reality in Russia changes, Ukrainians – especially tens of thousands of demobbed soldiers returning to an economically and demographically ravaged peacetime country – will not be willing to give up the fight. It is in this cocktail of disappointment, revanchisme, and hopelessness that ultranationalists might find the space to push their way to power. Backed by demobbed soldiers accustomed to the violence of combat, they would not hesitate to use violence to seize power, promising to return what Ukraine has lost, empower embittered veterans, and ensure that neither Russia nor the West will be in a position to leave the country adrift in the future.
An insular, disillusioned Ukraine would be an unreliable economic and security partner for Europe. It would be a poor home for the many citizens who refuse to embrace the political extremes. Worse, there is every possibility that Vladimir Putin may, given his decades-long interference in Ukrainian politics, even fuel ultranationalism as a way to justify further aggression against Kyiv.
For now, Ukraine’s democracy remains resilient and nationalist parties remain far from power. Western leaders looking to push a peace deal must make every effort to avoid this disaster. First, security guarantees must make it clear to Vladimir Putin that, should he attempt to attack Ukraine again, the West will use every military and economic tool available to repel the invasion and destroy the Russian regime. Second – a far more achievable aim – Western leaders must commit to supporting Ukrainian economic and democratic resilience as the country recovers from war. Ignore these realities in the rush to make peace and the worst outcome for Ukraine may yet transpire.