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The Telegraph
The Telegraph
14 Feb 2023


Real pay has suffered one of the largest falls on record, according to the ONS
Real pay has suffered one of the largest falls on record, according to the ONS Credit: Hollie Adams/Bloomberg

Average wages grew at the fastest rate ever seen outside the pandemic, new figures show.

Regular pay which excludes bonuses grew at the fastest rate seen outside of the pandemic, rising by 6.7pc in October to December, data from the Office for National Statistics shows.

The strong pay growth is likely to make for uncomfortable reading for Bank of England rate-setters who are trying to tame rampant inflation. 

The high figures will raise concerns that more interest rates may still be needed, even as the Bank earlier this month signalled the end of its aggressive tightening cycle is near. 

But with inflation still in double digits at 10.5pc, most workers’ purchasing power continues to deteriorate. 

Workers in the private sector saw a boost of 7.3pc to their pay, while the strike-engulfed public sector saw a more muted increase of 4.2pc.

In real terms, for all workers average wages when including bonuses fell by 3.1pc while regular salaries fell by 2.5pc. These are among the largest falls in growth since comparable records began in 2021, according to the ONS. 

The growing tensions over salaries failing to keep pace with inflation were also apparent in the number of working days lost to industrial action, which reached 843,000 in December. This is the highest since November 2011. 

One positive sign, however, was that a rise in part-time workers helped boost the employment rate to 75.6pc in October to December, an increase of 0.2 percentage points. 

Inactivity also fell by 0.3 points on the quarter to 21.4pc. It was mainly driven by 16 to 24 year olds.

Even as pay growth remains strong, the signs are mounting that the labour market is starting to cool. Unemployment edged up slightly to 3.7pc. 

eanwhile, vacancies fell by 76,000 in November to January, marking the seventh consecutive quarterly fall. The ONS said it reflects uncertainty from economic pressures holding back recruitment.

Read the latest updates below.

'Pay continues to be outstripped by rising prices', says ONS chief

Darren Morgan, director of economic statistics at the Office for National Statistics (ONS), said: 

The last quarter of 2022 saw fewer people remaining outside the labour market altogether, with some moving straight back into a job and others starting to seek work again.

This meant that although employment rose again, unemployment edged up also.

Although there is still a large gap between earnings growth in the public and private sectors, this narrowed slightly in the latest period.

Overall pay, though, continues to be outstripped by rising prices.

Though still at historically very high levels, job vacancies have dropped again, with a particularly sharp fall from the smallest employers.

The number of working days lost to strikes rose again sharply in December.

Transport and communications remained the most heavily affected area, but this month there was also a large contribution from the health sector.

Part-time workers behind slight rise in employment

The UK employment rate was estimated at 75.6pc, 0.2 percentage points higher than the previous three-month period, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) has said.

The increase in employment over the latest three-month period was driven by part-time workers, it said.

The rate of UK unemployment was 3.7pc in the three months to December, unchanged from the previous three months.

Good morning

Average wages grew at the fastest rate ever seen outside the pandemic.

However, surging inflation meant real income has still suffered one of the largest squeezes on record amid the cost of living crisis.

Growth in regular average total pay excluding bonuses rose 6.7pc in the final three months of last year, according to the Office for National Statistics.

Average pay in the private sector rose by 7.3pc during the period, which is also the largest ever seen outside the pandemic.

However in real terms, growth in total and regular pay fell over the course of the year by 3.1pc including bonuses and 2.5pc for regular pay excluding bonuses.

It is among the largest falls in growth since comparable records began in 2001.

The figures come as inflation runs at 10.5pc and may force the Bank of England to continue its programme of interest rate rises to stop higher costs becoming embedded as wages strive to keep pace with rising prices.

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What happened overnight 

Tokyo shares ended higher following Wall Street gains, despite a lacklustre Japanese GDP report and a wait-and-see mood ahead of US consumer price data.

The benchmark Nikkei 225 index gained 0.7pc to end at 27,602.77, while the broader Topix index rose 0.8pc to 1,993.09.

Other Asian shares also edged higher, tracking the rebound on Wall Street ahead of a key US inflation report, while the yen recouped losses against a sluggish dollar as Japan nominated a new central bank governor in a closely watched decision.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rebounded 0.3pc.

Chinese shares wobbled, with the blue chips losing 0.4pc and Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index easing 0.2pc.

Wall Street's equity indexes closed higher ahead of today's US consumer price index (CPI) report - key inflation data which will show whether price increases have slowed following the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes. 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished up 1.1pc at 34,245.93. The broad-based S&P 500 rose 1.1 pc to 4,137.29, while the tech-focused Nasdaq Composite jumped 1.5pc to 11,891.79.

However, yields on the 10-year US Treasury bond dipped amid investor optimism that the CPI release will indicate cooling inflation, easing pressure on the Federal Reserve to continue interest hikes for much longer. 

The FTSE 100 closed at a new high of 7,947.60, breaking the record for the third time this month. The pound rose to $1.21, compared with £1.20 at the previous close.