Political projections are notoriously fickle and biased. What first appears to be definitive often proves to be incorrect or flawed. This election cycle has some of the most novel or odd conditions we’ve ever seen in a presidential election.
But as unpredictable as many people think this election will be, I don’t see it this way. Let’s review a few wild cards first:
Few elections can ever really be said to be “in the bag.” Many people I know believe Biden will not be the Democratic nominee. However, these same people didn’t think Biden would even serve a year or two in office either. Electing a president is not like handicapping a horse race. Too many factors, variables, moving pieces, missteps, world events and sometimes even providence get in the way.
What happens if Biden drops out? What are the Democrats’ options? Harris is the presumptive presidential nominee for 2028 if a Biden/Harris ticket prevails in 2024. Harris has poor support from her party, except perhaps at the fringes.
California Gov. Gavin Newsom is positioning himself as a stand-in for both 2024 and 2028, much to the chagrin of the Biden administration. But he’s not the only individual keeping his options open; he’s just the most visible.
Then, there’s the fascinating question of moderate Sen. Joe Manchin as one of two potential spoiler in the upcoming election. I’ve talked to Dems who think a third-party candidate like Manchin would be the Democrat’s Death Star, benefiting Donald Trump significantly over Biden. The same can be said of Independent candidate RFK Jr.’s bid, with 14% of the electorate saying they’d vote for him.
Former Sen. Joe Lieberman‘s “No Labels” initiative publicly states it would not run a candidate that might become a spoiler in the election. But my guess is that with Manchin in a difficult-to-win reelection situation, and with the investment made by “No Labels” so far, it’s 60-40 in favor of a third-party presidential run next year.
We’ll have to wait and see! I find this election cycle definitely interesting, even though I fear another Biden or, God forbid, Harris presidency.
God Bless America.
This article was originally published by the WND News Center.
This post originally appeared on WND News Center.