Overnight, Hurricane Milton weakened somewhat and lessened in size. However, it is expected to regain strength today and then perhaps weaken as it closes in on the Florida West Coast. All interests in the Tampa area and South to Fort Myers/Naples should pay attention.
Today is the final day for any storm preparation. Conditions will deteriorate tonight as Milton approaches land. The exact location of impact is not yet defined. It looks like Sarasota Bradenton is in the bullseye. Information from the National Hurricane Center puts the predicted path at/near Tampa. Trust me, on this one a few miles will make all the difference.
(NHC) – At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Leslie was located near latitude 21.2 North, longitude 47.8 West. Leslie is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A slight reduction in forward speed and turn toward the north and north-northeast is forecast during the next few days.
Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is anticipated today and tonight, followed by weakening through early next week.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). (read more)
Within this forecast there is some good news (relatively speaking). The total of the eyewall is currently 30 miles (15 miles from center). That’s a tight buzzsaw in relative terms. This one is like Charley (’04) in both size and speed of forward travel. We want a small storm which can mitigate storm surge. Keep praying for this one to get torn apart by windshear.
Evacuations and final preparations should be rushed to completion. Everyone must be in their hunker down location by evening. .
With a compact storm (if it holds), the surge will be mitigated and of worst impact directly below the eye. A forward speed of 10mph will hopefully increase so that Milton moves fast and does not have the opportunity to build energy from the Gulf of Mexico.
All of that said, even a 3-hour duration event is serious for the West coast as Charley evidenced in 2004. 30-mile buzzsaw, 10 mph forward speed equals 3-hour duration. The storm surge will last approximately 2 additional hours to apex.
If you have ever heard the roof getting shredded (shingles ripping upward), you know the sound of bowling balls atop your house. This is what should be expected for those who encounter the eyewall for any significant amount of time.
CTH will have more information as updates come available. Coastal residents from Tampa south should have moved or are in the process of moving to areas without the worry of storm surge.
There is a lot of stress amid the population. Remember to breathe, pray, calm yourself and think positively about events. Focus on what you can do and stay calm amid crises. It will be okay.
Keep praying for Milton to encounter significant upper-level winds from the North which can hamper its ability to strengthen.