Hurricane Milton is traveling at a forward speed around 17 mph. With winds near 120 mph the eye of the storm is roughly 70 miles wide (35 miles from center). The storm is wavering in strength but should be anticipated to maintain this intensity as it makes landfall tonight.
The National Hurricane Center is forecasting just south of the Tampa Bay area as the most likely location for landfall. A few miles in any direction can make a big difference with this track. The greatest storm surge potential is south of the eyewall, extending well below the impact zone. Those who encounter the eye will likely be in strong hurricane force winds for 3 hours.
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Milton was located near latitude 26.9 North, longitude 83.4 West. Milton is moving toward the northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the east-northeast is expected on Thursday, followed by a turn toward the east on Friday.
On the forecast track, the center of Milton will make landfall near or just south of the Tampa Bay region this evening, move across the central part of the Florida peninsula overnight, and emerge off the east coast of Florida on Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Milton is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Milton could still be a major hurricane when it reaches the coast of west-central Florida this evening, and it will remain a hurricane while it moves across central Florida through Thursday. Milton is forecast to weaken over the western Atlantic and become extratropical by Thursday night.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255 miles (405 km). A WeatherFlow site located in Egmont Channel (XEGM) recently reported a sustained wind speed of 51 mph (82 km/h) with a wind gust of 63 mph (102 km/h). A WeatherFlow site located on the Sunshine Skyway Fishing Pier (XSKY) recently reported a sustained wind speed of 47 mph (76 km/h) with a wind gust of 62 mph (100 km/h). The minimum central pressure based on Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter data is 948 mb (28.00 inches). (more)
While a strong wind threat exists for the Tampa Bay area, residents south of the impact zone should prepare for a long duration storm surge event.
