Policymakers, investors, businesses and government officials are eager for the latest look into the slowing U.S. job market.
But they won’t be getting it until well after the federal government reopens.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the agency responsible for calculating the monthly jobs report, is one of dozens of government agencies unable to operate during the government shutdown, which began Wednesday, with no end in sight.
With BLS staff furloughed until government funding is restored, the agency is unable to compile, calculate or release key economic data — including the federal jobs report scheduled for Friday.
“While federal government shutdowns, by their nature, are counterproductive, this one would be especially ill-timed given the current high degree of uncertainty surrounding the economy,” wrote Mark Hamrick, senior economist analyst at Bankrate, in a Tuesday analysis.
“Any delay in releasing essential economic data, such as the monthly jobs report, directly impacts the decision-making abilities of consumers, investors, business leaders, and policymakers alike.”
Tracking monthly changes in the employment of more than 170 million American workers and the businesses that hire them is a complicated job.
To figure out how many jobs the U.S. added or lost on net each month, the BLS conducts two surveys.
One survey of U.S. households is used to calculate how many Americans are working, unemployed or not seeking jobs for various reasons. The data is also broken down by age range and other demographic factors to gauge differences in how those groups are faring in the job market.
Another survey, called the “establishment survey,” gauges how many jobs were added or lost in various industries, along with changes in compensation and working hours for employees.
Each survey is conducted over a weeklong period in the middle of the relevant month, though responses often come in days, if not weeks, after the survey period concludes.
The BLS then combines the adjusted results of those surveys into the monthly jobs report, which is typically released on the first Friday following the first day of the following month. The results are not usually finalized until late afternoon Thursday.
Assuming the BLS was following a similar timeline ahead of the September report, the agency was likely not done assembling the report when the shutdown began at 12:01 a.m. EDT Wednesday.
The BLS can resume working on the jobs report as soon as funding is restored to the agency, which did not appear imminent as of Wednesday afternoon.
It is also unclear how long it could take the BLS to finish the jobs report once the agency re-opens, given the significant drop in survey response rates and how many agency staffers return amid Trump’s threats to conduct mass layoffs during the shutdown.
Economists expected to see the U.S. rebounding from two miserable jobs reports in a row with a gain of between 50,000 and 80,000 jobs last month, according to estimates. While that would be a major improvement from the 29,000 jobs added each month on average this year, it is still well below the level economists consider the minimum — roughly 100,000 jobs — for keeping the unemployment rate stable.
The other major data report the BLS issues monthly is the latest reading of the consumer price index (CPI), which the agency uses to track price growth and calculate inflation.
The BLS is scheduled to release the September CPI report Oct. 15, which would be two weeks from the start of the shutdown. While it is possible for President Trump and lawmakers to reach a deal before then, it is unclear how long the BLS would need to compile price data from around the country and calculate it in time to release the report as scheduled.
The BLS is also due to release the Employment Cost Index report for the third quarter on Oct. 31, which is a key gauge of how much businesses are spending to maintain and attract workers.
In lieu of BLS data, policymakers, businesses leaders and investors will be leaning on private sector reports to guide their decisions.
While there is a wide range of high-quality private-sector economic data that can give helpful insights into the economy, BLS data on employment and inflation is considered the gold standard among analysts.
The lack of a federal jobs report has thrust the ADP National Employment Report — a much narrower and less reliable gauge of job growth — into the spotlight, even as economists express caution about its accuracy.
“It is fair to say this report hasn’t got a great track record in being a predictor of what happens in the BLS jobs report, but with non-farm payrolls not being released due to the government shutdown it is going to be an important data point with little to contradict it right now,” wrote James Knightley, chief international economist at ING, in a Wednesday analysis.
In a report released on Wednesday, ADP estimated that U.S. private sector businesses lost 32,000 workers in September, the latest red flag about the weakening job market.