In October 2022, we warned that Russian President Vladmir Putin was willing to exchange more than 300,000 Russian coffins for a modern-day empire in Ukraine. Tragically, we were not wrong.
If anything, we underestimated Putin’s preparedness to kill and maim as many Russian, Chechen, North Korean, Cuban and Chinese soldiers and conscripts as needed to achieve his Peter the Great-like realm. Today, Russian casualties in Ukraine surpassed one million, according to the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense.
No matter how willing Putin is, his meat grinder tactics are not militarily sustainable. In April, Gen. Christopher Cavoli, dual hatted as Commander, United States European Command and NATO Supreme Allied Commander Europe, testified before the U.S. Senate Armed Services Committee that the Russian military can likely only sustain its current operations for about 12 to 24 more months.
At the current rate of daily casualties for the Russian and their allies — about 1,200 a day — that translates to another 438,000 to 876,000 Russian casualties. The Kremlin continues to feed the Ukrainian meat-grinder with little regard for its soldiers. As Cavoli would go on and say, “Russian commanders still emphasize quantity and mass over skill and operational acumen.”
Ukrainian defenders have become quite efficient in killing and wounding Russian soldiers — or those dressed for the part — but they come back the next day, along the same avenues of approach, with the same result, gaining just a few meters of territory in exchange for appalling numbers of dead and wounded.
Despite President President Trump saying, “It’s time to stop this madness, it’s time to halt the killing, it’s time to end this senseless war,” Putin continues to attack along the frontlines and with daily bombardments of Ukrainian cities with drones, ballistic, cruise and hypersonic missiles. Meanwhile, Ukraine continues its valiant defense.
Putin does not see eye-to-eye with Trump because he does not want to stop the carnage. As Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told Martha Raddatz of ABC News, “I feel strongly that Putin does not want to finish this war. Inside his mind, it’s impossible to end this war without total defeat of Ukraine.”
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov made that clear in April when he said, “Russia will accept nothing less than total victory over Ukraine.”
There are multiple fights being waged in Ukraine concurrently — deep, close, rear, and interdiction. For now, though, the most important fight is for control of the skies above Ukraine.
Ukraine is capable of maintaining its current positions in the close fight; however, success depends on prevailing in interdiction and deep-strike efforts. Concurrently, Ukraine is insufficiently armed to effectively defeat the continuous drone and missile assaults targeting their urban areas.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz described the recent attacks on Ukrainian cities as the “most serious war crimes” and “terror against civilians.” Moscow, he said, is escalating the situation and attempting “to create a bloodbath” instead of negotiating with Ukraine. As Zelensky notes, “Without the help of the United States, we will have more losses.”
The Trump administration, however, has chosen to punt the problem to Europe in order to focus on their “priority theater.” In his testimony before the Committee on Appropriations of the House of Representatives on Tuesday, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth said, “As we shift our focus to the Pacific, we are counting on our NATO allies to devote more resources to defense to forge a strong shield of deterrence in Europe.”
At the most inopportune time of the war, as Russia launches hundreds of drones a day at Ukrainian cities — killing and wounding civilians and first responders with no legitimate military targets in sight — Hegseth announced that the U.S. will reduce funding allocated for military assistance to Ukraine in its upcoming defense budget.
This was preceded by the White House announcement last week that they were redirecting key anti-drone technology — 20,000 missiles earmarked earlier for Ukraine — to U.S. Air Force units in the Middle East. Then Israel stepped in to relieve some of the pressure against the ballistic, cruise and hypersonic missile threat.
As Zelensky continues to await a response from the White House concerning his request to purchase ten Patriot Air Defense Systems in April, Israeli Ambassador to Ukraine Mykhailo Brodsky announced the transfer of an undetermined number of Patriot systems to Ukraine that were provided to them by the U.S. in the early 1990s.
Ukraine reportedly had eight Patriot systems prior to this announcement.
This in addition to the ten German air defense missile systems that were sent to Ukraine in May.
Following their lead, the United Kingdom approved a deal on Wednesday to secure $2.2 billion in funding for additional air defense and multipurpose missile systems.
But defeating the individual missile does not defeat the threat. That requires destroying the weapons systems, and Ukraine is doing just that with its own weapons.
Operation “Spiderweb” on June 2 reportedly destroyed 34 percent of the Russian strategic bomber fleet that is being used to launch cruise missile attacks against Ukrainian cities.
Follow-on deep strikes over the weekend against the Kristall oil depot, Engels-2 and Dyagilevo air bases, Savasleyka airfield , Azot chemical plant, Kazan gunpowder plant, and VNIIR-Progress facility targeted the weapon systems, their support networks, munitions production, and funding sources for Russia’s terror campaign.
Heightened sanctions against Russia will not prevent further carnage — they may actually accelerate it. Sanctions are part of the solution, but they must be parlayed with other instruments of national power to have any effect.
The piecemealing of air defense systems in Ukraine will only provide limited results. To control its skies, Ukraine needs a sustained, integrated and layered air defense network, including a No-Fly zone, similar to the one Israel employed to defeat two Iranian missile attacks in April and October of 2024.
Merz’s message is clear: “Russia only understands force — so the West must show it.”
Eventually, NATO weapons systems, manned by NATO Soldiers, will be needed to provide Ukrainian civilians with security.
For now, Putin’s killing fields are in Ukraine. If he is left unchecked by Washington, London and Brussels, they might soon find themselves ordering coffins for NATO defenders, beginning with the Baltic States or Poland.
Col. (Ret.) Jonathan Sweet served 30 years as an Army intelligence officer. Mark Toth writes on national security and foreign policy.