Another government shutdown is upon us, and you know what that means: More handwringing about closed parks, furloughed workers, and stalled paychecks.
Not to make light of the real struggles that come with Washington’s periodic bouts of dysfunction (or the reputational hit abroad), but this particular shutdown could also carry outsized long-term political consequences that transcend the normal news coverage.
Although it is impossible to game out every possible ripple effect, I see three such scenarios emerging — outcomes which, to be sure, are being discussed, but probably in a way that minimizes their likelihood or potential impact on American politics.
First there is Virginia, home to more than 300,000 federal workers. Some of them have already been negatively affected by President Trump’s DOGE project. The rest are being affected right now.
Virginians are already casting early votes for the 2025 gubernatorial contest and down-ballot races for lieutenant governor, attorney general and House of Delegates. By all counts, this should be a Democratic year. Democrat Abigail Spanberger leads Republican Winsome Earle-Sears by double digits in recent polling.
History also favors Democrats. With just one exception in the last half-century, the off-year elections in Virginia punish the party in the White House.
The lone anomaly was 2013, when Republicans — thanks in no small part to Sen. Ted Cruz’s (R-Texas) effort to delay or defund Obamacare — were blamed for a government shutdown.
In other words, the last time Virginia broke from its pattern of reining in a newly elected or re-elected president, it happened against the backdrop of an October shutdown. It mattered then, and it could matter now.
If voters once again point fingers at Republicans, Spanberger’s advantage will be insurmountable. If it goes the other way, the race could tighten fast. Both campaigns clearly see what’s at stake.
“Given the impact of the tariffs, the impact of DOGE, the impending impact of the so-called ‘one big, beautiful bill,’ I as a candidate for governor am focused on the fact that a government shutdown is just one additional element that will create and continue to create dire circumstances for so many Virginians,” Spanberger told The Hill this week.
Earle-Sears, in contrast, is calling for a “clean” continuing resolution to keep the government open — a position that aligns her with Republican leaders.
If you’re betting on Virginia, I still think the smart money is on Spanberger. But the shutdown is an X factor that could test its reputation as a bellwether.
Second is the not-insignificant matter of whether the shutdown lets Republicans further dismantle the administrative state. Depending on your vantage point, this either means purging activist bureaucrats or weeding out career civil service workers who have non-partisan expertise. Either way, this is a long-standing conservative project.
A shutdown accelerates what would be a major deliverable for a president who has eschewed passing much legislation in favor of executive orders, culture wars, and, yes, increased executive power. On Truth Social, President Trump crowed, “I can’t believe the Radical Left Democrats gave me this unprecedented opportunity.” Although he is often prone to exaggeration, he may actually be underselling the potential impact of this shutdown.
Finally, Democrats might find their own unexpected advantage, if they are able to clearly signal to the American public that they are fighting for the millions of Americans who are about to see their healthcare costs increase when Affordable Care Act subsidies expire. As you might recall, Democrats took over the House majority in 2018 when they successfully made the midterm elections about Republican attempts to “repeal and replace” Obamacare.
In fact, healthcare ranked as the top issue for voters, according to exit polling that year, with more Americans trusting Democrats on the issue. Democrats need an issue, as the results of the 2024 presidential election suggest that defending liberal democracy is too abstract. Affordability and inflation are more likely to resonate with swing voters, and healthcare costs are adjacent to that.
Millions of Americans will soon discover that, starting next year, their healthcare costs are skyrocketing. Democrats will be quick to blame Republicans, and they will have more credibility if they can say they tried hard to stop it from happening — they were, after all, willing to shut down the government over it. In this scenario, Democrats could take a short-term hit in the form of blame for shutting down the government, while still making huge long-term strides toward winning the 2026 midterms.
The paradox of shutdown politics is that both sides can claim to win, but odds are that only one will ever be correct in hindsight.
Whether it’s Virginia’s next governor, a transformed federal bureaucracy, or a key issue Democrats desperately need to win in 2026, the political consequences of the next few weeks could echo for years.
Matt K. Lewis is a columnist, podcaster and author of the books “Too Dumb to Fail” and “Filthy Rich Politicians.”