As the first shutdown since 2009 rolls on, reopening the government will likely hinge on Democrats’ success convincing President Trump to learn to love a program that he has repeatedly attempted to destroy: Obamacare.
To do that, Democrats can lean on the type of strategic flattery employed by certain U.S. companies and world leaders to gain edge in their dealings with Trump. In short, Democrats’ best chance to break the impasse is by convincing President Trump that there is political and personal upside to defending the Affordable Care Act.
In the days leading up to the shutdown, Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) said that Republicans were open to talking about the expiration of the Affordable Care Act’s Enhanced Premium Tax Credits before more than 20 million Americans face higher premiums come January. But the snag is that the offer was (and still is) contingent on an open government.
With the exception of some bipartisan talks below the leadership level, both parties appear to be unmovable in their negotiating stances. Democrats see the Republican proposal to discuss health care premiums only after they surrender their leverage by reopening the government as a red herring. After all, it was the One Big Beautiful Bill Act that gutted the healthcare safety net.
So where does that leave us?
Congress should pass a multiple-week continuing resolution, satisfying a Republican demand, but include a provision that triggers restoration of the premium tax credits on Jan. 1 if Congress fails to act on a reform package of the Affordable Care Act by that deadline.
That lets Democrats test the sincerity of Thune’s offer to discuss reforms. It also gives them leverage to reject any reforms that fail to prevent exchange enrollees from seeing their premiums jump by an average of 75 percent in 2026.
And so, if on New Years Eve, the crystal ball drops in Times Square without a deal having been struck, the trigger restoring tax credits will take effect; that will ensure that the “do-nothing Congress” will have preemptively acted to protect millions of Americans from the eventuality that they would, well, live up to its name.
However, to break the dug-in negotiating positions of Republican leaders, Democrats need to get Trump to learn to love Obamacare by a different name.
Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) said that Trump may have not grasped the pain that the One Beautiful Bill Act will soon inflict. If that’s remotely true and knowing that Trump’s opposition to Obamacare is more about the “Obama” and less about the “care,” there may be room to persuade Trump to rebrand the popular program as his own.
Congress has already gone alone with etching Trump’s name into the minds of voters: Trump’s name appeared on COVID-19 CARES Act relief checks, the “Big Beautiful Bill” set up $1,000 savings “Trump Accounts,” and there’s a non-zero change that Congress will pass a bill to carve Trump’s likeness into Mount Rushmore.
What would this type of credit claiming look like?
A bill could restore premium tax credits but require the Affordable Care Act exchanges to make it clear that one man saved enrollees from exploding costs. The enrollment website could read: “Check to see if you are eligible for TRUMP CREDITS.”
Trump has said that he deserves credit for the good parts of the economy, but not the bad. In the same vein, Trump could say that it was “sleepy Joe’s” fault that the Inflation Reduction Act had tax credits set to expire on Dec. 31, which he alone fixed through the new and improved “Trump Credits.”
Many European leaders have learned and mastered this same art of strategic flattery; it worked to get Trump back onside with Ukraine. Other world and business leaders have used flattery and gifts to advance their interests, from the big splash of a gift 747 airplane to the more modest 24-karat inscribed plaque.
Democratic negotiators need not commission a gold-encrusted statue of Trump in the Capitol rotunda, but they do need to appeal to his needs and wants to end this impasse, as GOP leaders on the Hill are certain to follow.
This hypothetical compromise is not a cure all. But in this game of chicken, all sides being able to claim a “political win,” particularly Trump, is needed to prevent pocketbook pain and the collateral damage from a lengthy shutdown.
Blake Narendra mostly recently served as a special advisor to former Federal Trade Commission Chair Lina Khan. He previously worked at the National Security Council as a director for Legislative Affairs and for Sens. Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.) and Ed Markey (D-Mass.).