Democrats haven’t won a national election without running against Trump since 2012.
This poses a problem for them: In 2028, Trump will be off the ballot. This span of more than a decade epitomizes the breadth of the Democrats’ dilemma: In three years, do they want to run on the past and what has worked, or positively on the future, which hasn’t succeeded for them in 16 years?
The last time Democrats won a national election running for someone, that someone was Barack Obama seeking reelection. Republicans ran against Obama, coalescing around Mitt Romney.
Romney went down to a decisive defeat, losing by 5 million popular votes and 126 electoral votes. Romney also took the Republican Party establishment down with him.
In 2014, Democrats again ran in support of Obama and Obamacare. This time, it didn’t work. The midterm fate of the party holding the presidency prevailed; Democrats lost nine seats and control of the U.S. Senate and fell even deeper into minority status in the House (188 Democrats to 247 Republicans).
In 2016, out of nowhere, political newcomer Donald Trump wrested the Republican nomination from a host of contenders and the party from the Republican establishment. Trump has maintained his control ever since.
That same year, Democrats’ establishment did prevail. They and nominated Hillary Clinton. But her high-profile pedigree also made the race about her. Democrats proceeded to lose the biggest presidential upset since Harry Truman beat Thomas Dewey in 1948.
In 2018, with Trump as president, Democrats had no trouble making him the midterms’ focus. Trump’s high unfavorable ratings also made it easy for Democrats to prevail; they won the House — gaining 40 seats — and then turned on Trump with investigations, more than 1,700 hearings and letters and two impeachments.
In 2020, amid pandemic, lockdowns, economic downturn and civil unrest, Democrats found it even easier to focus attention on Trump. The Democratic establishment prevailed again, and Joe Biden was nominated.
With no incumbent since at least Gerald Ford facing such a negative climate for a referendum on his presidency, Democrats again won the presidency and gained control of Congress by gaining three Senate seats.
In 2022, try as they might, Democrats could not make the midterms about the defeated Trump: He was not on the ballot. Nor was his prospect of being on a ballot high based on presidential history: Neither party had nominated a previously defeated presidential nominee since Nixon in 1968.
Instead, the incumbent Biden was the focus, and Democrats lost the House with Republicans gaining 13 seats.
In 2024, a unique presidential election saw first Biden and then Harris as the Democrats’ presidential candidate. But in keeping their nomination within the incumbent administration, Democrats couldn’t stop the election from being a referendum on incumbency. They were destroyed between the coasts and lost in an electoral vote wipeout (226-312), losing the Senate (as Republicans flipped four seats) and with it, control of Congress.
So to recap, since winning behind Obama in 2012, Democrats have won just two national elections, 2018 and 2020. Both of these focused on Trump. They have lost four (2014, 2016, 2022 and 2024) — each time, the election’s focus was on them.
That makes Democrats 2-0 on Trump, but 0-4 on themselves.
The Democratic establishment is by now exhausted. There are no more “Hillarys,” no more “Joes.” In fact, there is no readily apparent party leader at all. Their base is far more radicalized than it was when they last ran and won a positive campaign in 2012.
Little wonder Democrats intend to run against Trump in 2026. Another midterm, and Trump with his unfavorables (51.8 percent in Real Clear Politics’ Sept. 3 average of national polling), will facilitate that.
The Democrats’ own base makes it impossible to do otherwise. The party still has no winning, positive agenda almost a year after November 2024.
But 2028 is a different story. Trump won’t be on the ballot. As of now, Democrats appear certain to run against Trump’s legacy of the last 12 years, even though the race will be about the next four years and beyond, when Trump cannot be in the White House.
Yet absent Trump as their campaign topic, Democrats would have to do something they have found impossible to do successfully over the last year, or at all since 2012: Successfully run on a positive agenda.
J.T. Young is the author of the recent book, “Unprecedented Assault: How Big Government Unleashed America’s Socialist Left” from RealClear Publishing and has over three decades’ experience working in Congress, the Department of Treasury, the Office of Management, and Budget, and representing a Fortune 20 company.