Brazil’s leftist president is a master of political sleight of hand. Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, known as “Lula,” has been imprisoned twice and elected president three times. He is now seeking a fourth term.
He is a friend of Vladimir Putin, a disciple of Fidel Castro and an associate of the late Hugo Chávez. He knows the ropes of power and how to manipulate them in his favor.
For him, President Trump’s recent threatened tariffs — made as part of a demand to drop the prosecution of former President Jair Bolsonaro, a Trump friend and ally — aren’t a problem, they’re a blessing in disguise.
Bolsonaro is on trial for his alleged role in riots at government buildings after Lula defeated him in 2022. And now Trump’s intervention is helping Lula politically.
“Brazil belongs to Brazilians … We are a big and sovereign nation” says the presidential X account. Brazil’s economic crisis and Lula’s unpopularity seem to be fading away while the nationalist carnival grows strident and the leftist leader campaigns, enraged and excited, in the name of sovereignty.
Lula knows the game and how to play it. He wants to replicate Prime Minister Mark Carney’s successful strategy in Canada.
In January, Carney was unknown by 76 percent of voters. His party seemed doomed to an election loss. Not even he believed he would win. However, he had a stroke of luck: Trump’s tariffs against Canada fueled his campaign, ignited nationalist sentiments and handed him a solid victory.
Lula isn’t interested in resolving the crisis with the U.S — no way. His entire career has been based on anti-imperialist and anti-American rhetoric to keep his legions of followers motivated and resentful, blaming others for their misfortunes instead of seeking real solutions. This is the classic Cuban rhetoric out of Eduardo Galeano’s “Open Veins of Latin America,” portraying a region abused and mistreated by powerful empires — meaning the U.S. and Europe.
The president of Brazil has done everything he could to obtain 50 percent tariffs. Lula strongly criticized Operation Midnight Hammer against Iran. He called Israel genocidal. He promoted the end of the dollar’s hegemony. He advocated for the creation of an alternative to the World Bank. He sought total alignment with Communist China and leaned into Brazil’s role in the BRICS group.
The leftist leader of Latin America’s largest country sees the crisis with the U.S. as a Christmas present in July. He is not interested in ending the confrontation with Trump. On the contrary, he seeks to fuel it, stir it up and extend it until Brazil’s October 2026 presidential election. Lula has said he would consider running for president for a fourth term to halt the advance of the radical right. Seems like his campaign has already begun with the announcement of the tariffs.
But while Lula stands to gain a lot from the confrontation, his country stands to lose. Although China is the main destination for Brazilian exports, the U.S. is the second largest and also the undisputed leader in foreign direct investments, which until 2021 represented 29.1 percent of this sector, totaling $191.6 billion. China doesn’t even appear in the top five for foreign direct investment in Brazil.
Fighting with the U.S. would be disastrous for job creation, especially when the economy is doing poorly under Lula’s leadership. Many sectors in Brazil could be affected by the 50 percent tariffs, and Lula says he will try to negotiate, but he’s ready to respond with the reciprocity required by law. Oh yes, he’s ready. Lula needs to sell himself as the strongman defending sovereignty to revitalize his political image, even if it means riding on the platform of a country in ruins. That’s how populists are — they don’t care about the national economy, but rather about their personal projects.
Exporters of coffee, orange juice, sugar, and many others would be the victims who bear the brunt of the confrontation that Lula wants to appease by adding gasoline to the fire. Other sectors affected by the tariff war would include steel, cement and the aeronautical industry.
Perhaps the tariffs will never be implemented. Perhaps they will simply be a tool or a strategy to negotiate from a position of strength. But Lula will do everything possible to keep this trade battle alive, to revive his battered image abroad and ultimately to realize his dream of becoming president for a fourth term.
Fasten your seatbelts.
Arturo McFields is an exiled journalist, former Nicaraguan ambassador to the Organization of American States, and a former member of the Norwegian Peace Corps. He is an alumnus of the National Defense University’s Security and Defense Seminar and the Harvard Leadership course.