An outgoing president often seeks to lock in his favored policies or programs — ones he values as particularly important or even historic, to improve prospects of their continuing under a new president. That is especially true in the area of foreign affairs, where a positive presidential legacy is especially prized.
On the first Trump administration’s last day in office, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo announced the U.S. government’s finding that the People’s Republic of China was guilty of committing genocide against its Uighur population. The action was successful and proved harmonious with the thinking of the new Biden administration. Two days later, on his first full day on the job, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said he believed China was indeed violating the Genocide Convention, and that his team would review the Trump administration’s finding. Within three months, the Biden administration made the same formal determination of Chinese genocide.
The Trump administration’s national security team also made a series of decisions strengthening America’s political and security relationship with Taiwan, the democratic island under constant, and escalating, threat from communist China. It even approved the sale of several weapons systems that had been on hold since the Obama-Biden administration.
Now, the Biden team, down to its last few weeks in office, is rushing to consolidate its most important foreign policy undertaking: providing support for the defense of Ukraine against Russia’s aggression under Vladimir Putin.
Trump’s critics label Biden’s moves for Ukraine as “Trump-proofing,” given Trump’s repeated pledges to end the Ukraine war immediately upon taking office. Meeting that commitment could mean forcing Ukraine to surrender some of its sovereign territory to the Russian invaders — a betrayal of the principle of territorial integrity for which World War II was fought.
They also cite the early frictions between Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky, and Trump’s professed admiration for Putin. But that jaundiced view, which I have shared, ignores the reality that, in 2018, Trump unblocked the transfer of several weapons systems that the Obama-Biden administration, fearful of antagonizing Putin, had been holding up for years. Moreover, Trump imposed an unprecedented number of sanctions against Russia.
Considering Trump’s penchant for bold and surprising moves, he could well decide to save Ukraine, after all of its death and destruction, not only from an ignoble defeat at the hands of war criminal Putin but from the grinding stalemate borne of the Biden-Harris approach, which has added to the horrendous suffering of Ukrainians without necessarily changing the war’s outcome. Trump could well demand that NATO live up to its full potential, follow America’s lead, and guarantee Ukraine’s security after tantalizing it for years with the prospect of membership. It would also be an effective way of demonstrating to the world that Trump is not in thrall to Putin, whose oppressive regime has severely punished Russians as well as Ukrainians.
If that optimistic scenario is indeed the one that is unfolding, the Biden-Trump tandem team can each claim their share of credit for a major historic victory, belated as it is, for democracy over authoritarianism and for the rules-based international order. A beneficial outcome for Ukraine can also prove a godsend for the people of Russia, as an opportunity to hasten the end of Putin’s long rule.
Similarly, in a move that has angered China, the Biden team last week approved $385 million in new weapons sales to Taiwan, including spare parts for fighter jets and radar systems. In an accelerating pace of military assistance for Taiwan, it follows last month’s announced sale of $2 billion in arms for Taiwan, including advanced surface-to-air missile systems and radar.
Biden has also approved two “transit stopovers” by Taiwan’s newly elected president, William Lai, who will land in Hawaii and the U.S. territory of Guam en route to Pacific allies including the Marshall Islands, Tuvalu and Palau, all of which China condemns as encouraging Taiwan’s separateness from China.
Biden’s pro-Taiwan moves are almost a mirror image of the China table-setting that Trump and his team accomplished earlier in its transformation of Washington’s China policy, from engagement and accommodation to hard-eyed skepticism of Chinese intentions. The tone change started with Trump’s 2016 acceptance of a congratulatory phone call from Taiwan’s then-President Tsai Ing-wen and his dismissal of Beijing’s strong objection. Such an action had been theretofore unheard of in U.S.-China relations. It ushered in a range of Trump administration actions that reversed four decades of U.S. deference to Beijing.
Biden’s team seems to have found the Trump policies, including the levying of significant tariffs and sanctions, worth retaining. Hopefully those earlier policies will prevail over some post-incumbency comments Trump has made critical of Taiwan and seemingly sympathetic to Xi Jinping.
Depending on which course he chooses to follow, Trump has a choice of either burnishing or blemishing his foreign policy record. If he wants to, he can chart a uniquely new course that will put him on the heroic side of history.
Joseph Bosco served as China country director for the secretary of Defense from 2005 to 2006 and as Asia-Pacific director of humanitarian assistance and disaster relief from 2009 to 2010. He is a nonresident fellow at the Institute for Corean-American Studies, a member of the advisory board of the Global Taiwan Institute and member of the advisory board of The Vandenberg Coalition.