Democratic strategists have been counting the days to the 2026 midterms ever since Nov. 5, 2024. Republicans, meanwhile, have kept their foot on the gas since reclaiming full control of Washington this January, well aware that political winds rarely blow a political party’s way after two years of unified governance.
But Democrats are bound to be disappointed at the 2026 midterm results, finding that the wave elections of old resemble little more than faint white caps off a quiet inlet.
The last time more than 13 seats flipped in a midterm election was 2018, when the Democrats leveraged overwhelming frustration with the first Trump administration to pick up 41 House seats in the nation’s largest midterm turnout in over 100 years. Republicans then clawed back 12 seats in 2020.
More telling, though, were the 2022 midterms. They were widely expected to be a red wave fueled by a historically unpopular Democratic president whose party enjoyed two consecutive years of unilateral control in Washington. But Republicans only barely won the majority, flipping just nine seats. And in 2024, Democrats picked up two seats, leaving Republicans with the smallest House majority in history. Amid all these races, the largest gain in the Senate by either party was only four seats.
In short, wave midterms simply aren’t happening anymore. Why? Increased political polarization and aggressive gerrymandering have left far fewer congressional districts in play. Studies estimate that just 10 percent of today’s congressional districts are competitive, down from 40 percent in the 1990s. In 2022, just 6 percent of voters supported a congressional candidate in a different party than their presidential pick of 2020.
But it’s not just history and data draining the possibility of a blue wave in 2026.
Between voter frustration with a lackluster economy, unresolved foreign wars and a landmark tax and spending bill that even right-leaning sources acknowledge is remarkably unpopular, one might think Democrats are well-positioned to make up ground in 2026.
But candidate quality matters tremendously and is often more predictive than the national political climate. And to say Democrats aren’t recruiting candidates strong enough to seize political opportunities is an understatement — they’re struggling to recruit candidates all together.
Pennsylvania’s 8th District has been written about extensively as a pickup opportunity, as roughly one-third of its residents are enrolled in Medicaid, and it’s governed by a freshman who won the seat in 2024 by less than two points. The Democratic primary for this race is in May, and not a single candidate has announced an intention to run.
Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) has Democratic strategists salivating. Maine voted for Kamala Harris by 7 points in 2024, and Collins has since bucked her party with high-profile opposition to President Trump’s Cabinet nominees and his biggest legislative priority. Condemned by her own party and running in a blue state, she would seem like a great target. But the would-be deep bench of Democratic candidates to oppose Collins is looking remarkably thin. The state’s top row-office holders have decided to run for governor, leaving a first-time candidate as the leading Democrat in the Senate primary.
In the swing state of North Carolina, freshman Republican Chuck Edwards of the 11th District is a mainstay on Democratic House Leader Hakeem Jeffries’ political target list. He has also caught the ire of the one of the largest and deepest pocketed left-leaning Super PACs. In this race, the best-known Democratic challenger previously lost the district by double digits to disgraced former Republican Rep. Madison Cawthorn (R) — where political violence played a central theme in his unsuccessful bid for Congress.
While plenty of time remains to field strong candidates, given the historic unpopularity the national Democratic Party is still fighting to get out from under, this lack of progress toward a movement that can capitalize on strategic pickup opportunities is noteworthy.
Despite shrinking congressional maps and low candidate quality, Democrats do have some reasons for optimism. Democrats vote more consistently in non-presidential elections, and Republicans, especially in the MAGA era, have been less motivated to vote when President Trump is not on the ballot. Furthermore, Democrats do well when health care is a key election narrative — consider the salience of abortion in the 2022 midterms or Obamacare in 2018.
The president’s Big Beautiful Bill figures to be one of the main topics on voters’ minds as they begin considering who to support in 2026.
In today’s modern political waters, there are no more waves — only ripples. And in the stillness, it’s not the size of the wave, but the skill of the captain that determines which party reaches the shore.
Zach Kennedy is government affairs representative at the Ridge Policy Group, and a previous Democratic campaign operative from Pennsylvania.