Nearly 30 years ago, in March 1994, the late President Richard Nixon penned a pivotal seven-page letter to then-President Bill Clinton, with insights that have proven to be prophetic about the political landscape in Russia.

Recently declassified by the Clinton Presidential Library, the content of this letter underscores Nixon’s critical foresight, particularly concerning Russia.

Nixon, widely known for his turbulent departure from the White House amidst the Watergate scandal in 1974, carried with him a complex legacy.

However, an overlooked aspect of his tenure was his instrumental role as the architect of détente with the Soviet Union during the Cold War.

As the first U.S. President to visit Moscow in 1972, Nixon engaged in pivotal negotiations with Soviet General Secretary Leonid Brezhnev. These negotiations resulted in the signing of the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty and the Strategic Arms Limitation Treaty.

Continuing his involvement in foreign affairs post-presidency, Nixon offered counsel grounded in his years of experience to steer U.S. policy in the post-Cold War era.

Returning from a two-week trip to Russia and Ukraine, he penned his observations and concerns to President Clinton.

The essence of Nixon’s correspondence centered around the precarious state of political and economic freedom in Russia, which he regarded as “the most important foreign policy issue the nation will face for the balance of this century.”

Nixon expressed concern over the deteriorating situation in Russia under former Russian President Boris Yeltsin, saying, “I have reluctantly concluded that his situation has rapidly deteriorated since the elections in December, and that the days of his unquestioned leadership of Russia are numbered.”

“His drinking bouts are longer and his periods of depression are more frequent. Most troublesome, he can no longer deliver on his commitments to you and other Western leaders in an increasingly anti-American environment in the Duma and in the country,” he continued.

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Nixon presciently anticipated a downturn in the relationship between Russia and Ukraine, warning that the scenario in Ukraine was “highly explosive.” Drawing attention to the possible disastrous outcomes, Nixon cautioned Clinton, “If it is allowed to get out of control, it will make Bosnia look like a PTA garden party.”

The veteran statesman further advised Clinton to enhance American diplomatic presence in Kyiv and to be cautious about maintaining close relationships with ailing leaders, using former President George H. W. Bush’s alliance with Gorbachev as an example.

“Bush made a mistake in sticking too long to Gorbachev because of his close personal relationship. You must avoid making that same mistake in your very good personal relationship with Yeltsin,” he wrote.

He pointed out the importance of developing rapport with potential successors, emphasizing the need to avoid favoring personal relationships over pragmatic political strategies.

Nixon also prophesied a populist and nationalist resurgence in Russia that could bring a “credible candidate for president” to power. This prediction came to fruition a mere five years later with the rise of Vladmir Putin’s Russian nationalist regime.

In his letter, Nixon expressed his skepticism towards career diplomats, advising Clinton to make his own decisions and not be influenced overly by his staff.

“I learned during my years in the White House that the best decisions I made, such as the one to go to China in 1972, were made over the objections of or without the approval of most foreign service officers,” he wrote.

Nixon advised Clinton to chart his own course and not to be held back by his staff.

“Remember that foreign service officers get to the top by not getting into trouble. They are therefore more interested in covering their asses than in protecting yours.”

Reflecting on Nixon’s letter in later years, Clinton admitted his desire to seek Nixon’s advice on various issues, especially those concerning Russia.

He said in 2013, “After he died, I found myself wishing I could pick up the phone and ask President Nixon what he thought about this issue or that problem, particularly if it involved Russia.”

Nixon’s declassified letter serves as a testament to his foresight, reemphasizing his influential role in the realm of foreign policy, even years after and in spite of his mired presidency.

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